All Time Baseball IX - Archives
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12/12 - Sim 10 Complete 12/06 - Predicting the Future 12/03 - Sim 9 Complete 11/15 - Sim 6 Complete 11/13 - All Star Series Results 11/12 - All Star Rosters 11/06 - Sim 5 Review 11/03 - Different Approaches to Run Scoring 10/22 - Looking at the New Player Seasons (Batting Edition) 10/17 - Week 2 - Making Statements 10/10 - Week 1 is Done 10/05 - Opening Weekend 09/11 - Greatest Pitching Staff of All time 09/10 - T-minus 7 Days 09/05 - The Best Offense 09/04 - Player Profile: Lefty Grove 08/31 - Player Profile: Tris Speaker 08/30 - Remember the Era! 08/30 - Why the 1800s Players Were Introduced to ATB 08/27 - The DMB Manager Profile 08/24 - Defense Matters 08/23 - Greatest Seasons of All Time Baseball 08/21 - PC Mock Draft
Week 10 was memorable, with major changes and developments in both the Divisional and Wild Card races. Starting in the Union, the CosaNostra Deliverators had a stellar week, winning 10 of 14 games and closing to within 1.5 games of the division lead as play ended on August 26. They then hit the road travelling to Manetheren to face off in the first of their two remaining series with their divisional rival Red Eagles. It was a manslaughter, as the Red Eagles swept outscoring the visitors 32-12, just about ending the Union Division race.
The Red Eagles went on to battle against another divisional foe and playoff hopeful, the Staten Island Dumpers, and swept them too for their 6th consecutive victory, and severely damaging the Dumpers shot at October glory. In the 6 games the team batted .389 / .446 / .558 and were led by player of the week Fred Lynn and his .652 batting average and 1.866 OPS.
The Federal Division was turned upside down as the Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs forgot how to win - they dropped 10 of 13 decisions and are currently mired in a 5 game losing streak. Unfortunately for them, the losing exactly coincided with a great run from the Dyersville Black Sox who went 11-4 in Sim 10 and now own a 2 game lead for the Division Title. The run was due to several stellar pitching performances:
What happened to Rockaway? Everything. Their offense batted .233 / .327 / .308 and their pitching staff had a combined ERA of 5.47. Tommy Bond (8.56 ERA) imploded and Harry Brecheen spontaneously combusted to the tune of an 18.00 ERA in 3 starts. The pen was equally as shoddy thanks to Reb Russell (5.73 ERA), Tom Burgmeier (6.75 ERA), and Pat Jarvis (10.50 ERA). On offense starters Joe Gordon, Jim Thome, Tommy Holmes, Will Clark, Reggie Smith, and King Kelly each batted under the Mendoza line and Ty Cobb bated just .207. You can still hear Reggie Jackson screaming he was the only one "with heart" after he batted .400 / .488 / .657 in his 14 games during Week 10.
Of course these divisional match-ups had implications on the Wild Card race too.
Looking Ahead - Week 11 Important Series Staten Island @ CosaNostra G1: Kid Nichols (6-5, 4.32) vs. Russ Ford (12-7, 3.04) G2: Al Orth (8-6, 3.55) vs. Derek Lowe (11-6, 3.40) G3: Warren Hacker (10-8, 4.55) vs. Mort Cooper (9-9, 4.27)
This is a critical series for Staten Island as it is the only series they have against playoff competition in Sim 11. If they can hold their own here and play .600 ball against the rest of the teams, they have a shot.
Dyersville @ Rockaway G1: Randy Johnson (15-5, 2.84) vs. Monty Stratton (12-6, 3.95) G2: Hank Aguirre (11-13, 3.08) vs. Guy Hecker (12-4, 3.09) G3: Curt Schilling (16-5, 3.17) vs. Eddie Plank (8-4, 2.98)
Superb series and one that could decide the Federal Division. The Black Sox also have a 2-game set against County Wicklow.
County Wicklow @ Rockaway G1: Greg Maddux (12-4, 2.89) vs. Eddie Plank (8-4, 2.98) G2: John Tudor (10-14, 4.03) vs. Harry Brecheen (5-7, 5.23) G3: Teddy Higuera (13-10, 3.15) vs. Tommy Bond (5.02)
County Wicklow's season may comes down to the 5 games they have against Dyersville and Rockaway, as a poor showing undoubtedly bounces them from the playoff picture, and strong one damages the teams ahead of them.
Predictions Update Based upon adjusted Pythagorean records and remaining strength of schedule.
A few years back Bill James derived a formula to predict the outcome of a game based upon each teams winning percentage. Using this theory, we can get a rough estimate of how each team will fair the rest of the season based upon a) their own record, and b) their opponents record.
We can do better than looking at straight winning percentage though - by incorporating each team's Pythagorean Record into James' original formula. To add one more twist the original brainchild, instead of straight record or the standard Pythagorean Record, we'll combine the two and use it as the basis for each teams true level of play.
An example of how it works.
Repeating this for all of the playoff hopefuls we arrive at the following:
DW = Division Winner. WC = Wild Card
If everything holds to form, the Red Eagles, Insomniacs, Deliverators, and Black Sox are going to the playoffs. Of course, everything will most definitely not hold to form and it will be interesting to see how much this report changes when their are say 20 games left. As it is now, the schedules are fairly balanced, all teams between a .482 Wpct and .507. By next sim the balancing will subside a bit, and head to head series will be watched closely as each game becomes more more important.
To end, here is a look at the data used to complete the race table above.
While it is too early to proclaim any division won, it is nonetheless starting to look like the Manetheren Red Eagles and Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs are the best teams in their respective divisions. Both squads have their divisions best records, best run differentials, and are operating without any life threatening injuries.
For now at least, the story of ATB IX moves towards the Wild Card where 6 teams realistically have a chance at the the two Wild Card slots. Remember, the WC is division independent, and the two best non-division winners, from any division, advance to the playoffs. Here is a look at the top 5 teams - their strengths & weaknesses and what lies in their road ahead.
COSANOSTRA DELIVERATORS, 1st Wild Card The Basics: 626 RS (4th), .299 / .363 / .437; 519 RA (3rd), 4.05 ERA, 12.0 R/9, 5.3 K/9 - Neutral Park Best Starting Pitcher: Pedro Martinez (13-3, 3.32 RCERA, 168 IP, 156 H, 37 BB, 170 K) Best Reliever: Dizzy Dean, MR (10-2, 2.56 RCERA, 97 IP, 84 H, 24 BB, 30 K) Best Batter: Nap Lajoie, 2B (.353 /.382 / .477, 6 HR, 65 R, 48 RBI) Biggest Concern: This is a pretty good team (as evidenced by their #1 ranking in the Wild Card) and there is no glaring weakness to be found. Of biggest concern is likely their bullpen, who's team ERA of 4.43 is just 12th in the league. When games enter the late innings the Deliverators have three pitchers coming out of the pen who strike little fear in the hearts of opposing batters. Setting up versus lefties is Al Grabowski, who is giving up well over a hit an inning an has an ERA of 4.14. Setting up versus righties is Mike Jackson, a pitcher who simply can't avoid the long ball. He's yielded 8 HR in just 41 innings which has inflated his ERA to 6.26. Finally, closing is Jeff Gray who has blown 6 saves and has an ERA of 5.00 on the nose. Interestingly, despite these struggles Jack Quinn, Todd Frohworth, and Howie Pollet are rostered players who have faced just 14 batters (4 IP) combined all season long. It is past time to give them a shot.
DYERSVILLE BLACK SOX, tied for 2nd Wild Card The Basics: 496 RS (14th), .273 / .326 / .383; 411 RA (1st), 3.31 ERA, 11.2 R/9, 6.0 K/9 - Extreme Pitchers Park Best Pitcher: Hank Aguirre, probably (9-12, 3.22 RCERA, 175 IP, 152 H, 69 BB, 85 K) Best Reliever: Joe Nathan, CL (35 Sv, 2.10 RCERA, 43 IP, 31 H, 19 BB, 41 K) Best Batter: Willie Stargell, DH (.269 / .327 / .554, 27 HR, 55 R, 67 RBI) Biggest Concern: The pitching staff is for real and not just a product of the Bee Hive. At home opponents are batting .237 / .299 / .327, and on the road .244 / .303 /.375. Remember, the league average batting line is .275 / .338 / .401. Their team offense on the other hand is problematic. They are just 14th in Extra Base Hits and in the bottom half of the league in AVG and OBP. There is no single culprit to point to, or at least they have no more gaping holes than most other teams, but top to bottom on most nights their lineup is not as good as their opponents.
There is a ray of hope however and it came in the form of a trade in early July. Since Albert Pujols came to the team, the Black Sox have been 9th in runs scored, a direct cause of which is his .801 OPS, 29 R, and 24 RBI in 38 games. This may not sound like a lot, but it replaces Joe Morgan who had batted just .203 during his tenure with Dyersville.
NY BLUES, tied for 2nd Wild Card The Basics: 705 RS (2nd), .295 / .356 / .464; 676 RA (16th), 5.11 ERA, 13.1 R/9, 5.8 K/9 - Extreme Batters Park Best Starting Pitcher: Ron Guidry (8-5, 4.55 RCERA, 133 IP, 148 H, 57 BB, 96 K) Best Reliever: Jonathan Papelbon, CL (21 Sv, 2.99 RCERA, 47 IP, 39 H, 23 BB, 45 K) Best Batter: Willie McCovey, 1B (.285 / .376 / .495, 26 HR, 81 R, 64 RBI) Biggest Concern: The Blues offense is great, but is it due to Coors Field or is it due to personnel? Their pitching staff is quite bad, but again, is this more of a reflection of quality or proximity to sea level? Their road batting stats are .266 / .329 / .424 and home splits are .325 / .385 / .506. Huge differences obviously. Similarly, their pitchers have a home OPS of .840 and a road OPS of .747. Having said all this, their record is virtually identical at home or on the road so it hasn’t seemed to hurt the team to date.
STATEN ISLAND DUMPERS, 1.5 games out The Basics: 638 RS (3rd), .303 / .354 / .439; 605 RA (11th), 4.49 ERA, 13.4 R/9, 5.1 K/9 - Great 1B, 2B, 3B Park Best Starting Pitcher: Warren Hacker (10-5, 3.65 RCERA, 112 IP, 112 H, 24 BB, 54 K) Best Reliever: BJ Ryan, CL (22 Sv, 2.61 RCERA, 56 IP, 42 H, 31 BB, 51 K) Best Batter: Stan Musial, CF (.330 / .372 / .544, 16 HR, 72 R, 74 RBI) Biggest Concerns: Stan Musial was injured during Sim 8 and not due back until the end of August (34 days). He is the best hitter on the club, bats third, and nobody can replace him in the lineup. If the Dumpers can keep within a few games of the Wild Card lead his return for the last month of the season will be a huge boon for the club, and may be just what is needed to put them over the top.
Another problem area for the Dumpers is the lack of a #1 starter. Pete Alexander is having a down year (7-10, 5.25 ERA), the worst he’s provided in recent memory. It may be more a problem in the playoffs than the remaining 6 weeks, but no playoff hopeful can survive long without a legitimate front line starter.
PLANET 10, 2.5 games out The Basics: 570 RS (6th), .275 / .339 / .399; 528 RA (5th), 4.03 ERA, 13.1 R/9, 5.7 K/9 - Low Singles, High HR Park Best Starting Pitcher: Jack Chesbro (9-6, 3.51 RCERA, 133 IP, 125 H, 56 BB, 94 K) Best Reliever: Gary Peters, MR (6-2, 2.93 RCERA, 97 IP, 85 H, 28 BB, 37 K) Best Batter: Barry Bonds, LF (.303 / .462 / .558, 30 HR, 87 R, 85 RBI Biggest Concern: Middle Infield or the Closer situation. Against righties, the shortstop and batting lead-off, is Jose Reyes. He's batting .209 /.242 / .270 and no longer has any business batting in the top end of the lineup. Versus lefties, the second basemen is Bret Boone, who is batting even worse at .194 / .238 / .253. Luckily, their platoon partners are more than holding their own. Nomar Garciaparra (.307 AVG, .352 OBP) and Charlie Gehringer (.335 OBP) are above average. Still, one can't help but if Bill Dahlen would be a better option at short versus righties.
Closing games out has been problematic as well. Bobby Thigpen closes versus lefties and has successfully saved 17 of 22 opportunities, a percentage just 13th best in the 16 team league. His ERA is currently over 5.00. Against righties, Trevor Hoffman has recently been given some opportunities and has a better ERA at 4.20, but it is nowhere near as good as some of the elite closers of Planet 10's competitors. Hoffman's save percentages is even worse, successful just 11 of 17 times.
Power Alley believes the current Wild Card teams - the Deliverators and Black Sox - are the teams to beat, and by a healthy margin. However, each of these teams are good enough to go on a long enough winning streak to force themselves into a Wild Card position.
Note:
Sorry, no time this week for a full fledged write-up. All the reports, including custom ones, have been updated. Look for an article some time this weekend. Oh, and be sure to take a look at the great race in Federal League, and the nose dive of Babe & Babe in the Union.
11/13 - All Star Series Results It's fun to be wrong. I joked with several Federal League owners this pre-season about how much better the FL is over the Union League. After all, the vast majority of previous ATB champions all happen be in the FL. To add weight, the FL jumped out to a huge lead in head to match-ups in the first month. Then came the All Star game. Again, I thought for sure the FL would easily dispatch their foe's but when looking at the teams, it became clear the All Star's were evenly matched.
Then came the All Star Series itself. On a whim, I decided to up the number of games to 11 without actually thinking it would go this long. Sure enough, the Fed's jumped out to a 5-1 series lead and I stopped paying attention (well, as much as one can stop when he's running the sims on his own computer).
But then in Game 7 the Fed's ran into a wall in the form of the Union League's bullpen. In Game 8 Jason Schmidt proved his was an All-Star; Game 9 Randy Johnson tosses a 3-hitter. Then came Game 10 and I started to worry, but knew Pedro Martinez was on the mound. 5 runs in less than 5 innings and the series was tied at 5 games a piece. And wouldn't you know it, the series was decided on a 2 run 9th inning rally. Here's a game by game blow of a series that was unexpectedly stimulating.
Game 1: UL 1, FL 2 - FL Leads Series 1-0 In a great pitchers duel between Number One starters Randy Johnson (DBS) and Bill Bernhard (MRE) the game entered the 7th inning with the visiting UL clinging to a 1-0 lead. Earlier, Lou Gehrig (STE) popped a solo home run down the right field line to open the scoring of the series. Both starters were cruising with Johnson striking out 6 through 6. In the bottom of the 7th though, he made his only mistake of the game. With 2-outs, the UL pinch hitter Tip O'Neil (MRE) walked, bringing the 9th place hitter Nap Lajoie (CD) to the plate. The second basemen was hitless in his two previous at bats but took a first pitch offering from Johnson deep to right field, clearing the fence for a 2-run home run and a one run lead.
Bernhard ran into a bit of trouble in the 8th, but got out of a small jam by retiring Hugh Duffy (SCS) and Charlie Keller (CWS) with runners on 1st and second. Bruce Sutter (B&B) had a 1-2-3 ninth, striking out Mickey Mantle (NYB) to end the game.
Game 2: FL 5, UL 6 - Series tied 1-1 The FL team picked things up right where left off, jumping out to an early 3-0 lead when Babe Ruth (B&B) drilled a 3-run home run off starter Curt Schilling (DBS) with 2-outs in the first. Schilling would struggle the rest of the night (5 IP, 7 H, 1 BB) but yielded only 1 more run, unearned, in the 6th when Honus Wagner (SCS) booted an easy ground ball with the bases loaded.
Meanwhile, perennial ATB great Pedro Martinez (CD) was struggling as well, giving up a run in the third, two in the 4th, and one more in the 6th before leaving with the game tied at 4-4. Ruth struck again in the top of the 7th, this time with a run scoring single off of reliever Joe Sambito (CWS) giving the Fed's a one run lead to turn over to their stellar bullpen. Jim Poole (MRE) worked his way out of a 7th inning pickle when Mantle was thrown out at home trying to score on a ground ball to second. Poole then pitched a hitless 8th before giving way to Sutter for the save opportunity.
The closer struck out Duffy but gave up single to Wagner, bringing Mantle back up to the plate. Mantle had driven in a run earlier and took a full count fastball over the wall in right for a walk-off home run, tying the series at 1-1.
Game 3: UL 4, FL 8 - FL Leads series 2-1 A blowout, with the UL starter Teddy Higuera (CWS) getting bounced after recording just three outs. In the second inning, 5 consecutive base runners reached base with 4 runners scoring. One out later Frank Robinson (SID) smacked a home run down the left field line scoring the 7th run of the inning. Cy Blanton (MRE) didn't pitch particularly well for the Union League (4 IP, 4 R, 8 H) but the pen held down the opposition easily (5 IP, 4 H, 0 R)
Game 4: FL 4, UL 2 - FL Leads Series 3-1 UL Starter Jason Schmidt (DBS) gives up 3 runs in the 1st two innings (3 IP, 8 H, 3 R) after Robinson strikes with a 2-run single and Darren Daulton (CD) hits a solo home run in the second. Ben Sheets (B&B) pitched well to record the victory (6 IP, 5 H, 5 K, 2 R) and simply tired to open the 7th, giving up back to back solo home runs to Gehrig and Mantle. The UL pen was stellar once again, with Poole and Sutter giving up just 2 hits and no runs in the final three frames.
Game 5: FL 5, UL 3 - FL Leads Series 4-1 Going back to the #1 starters, Johnson and Bernhard, the Federal Leaguer comes up victorious again pitching into the 8th inning giving up 3 runs on 8 hits. Johnson faired much worse and couldn't get out of the 4th (9 hits, 3 R). The Fed's scored lone runs in 1st, 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 8th innings to take a 5-1 lead before the UL threatened, making a game of it when Rogers Hornsby (SS) and Gehrig each drove in a runner. But the 9th was quiet and the game never really in doubt.
Game 6: UL 0, FL 4 - FL Leads Series 5-1 Martinez was masterful, striking out 10 and giving up just 3 hits, en route to a complete game shutout. Schilling was a bit unlucky, but struggled at times nonetheless (4 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 ER) giving him his second below average start of the series. O'Neil, Barry Bonds (P10), Derek Jeter (AV), and Daulton each drove in runners. The series was all but over.
Game 7: UL 7, FL 6: FL Leads Series 5-2 The UL keeps the series alive thanks to multi-hit games from Ty Cobb (RSI), Hornsby, Gehrig, Sherry Magee (CWS), and Steve Evans (SCS). Neither starter pitched well, but the UL pen outperformed their opponents with Tim Burke (SCS) nailing down a 6-out save and the chance to play again.
Game 8: FL 1, UL 2: FL Leads Series 5-3 The Union'ers won't go way as Schmidt bent but didn't break leading his team to a 1 run victory. Schmidt pitched into the 8th, giving up 9 hits and 3 walks, but just 1 run before yielding to Rafael Soriano (SS) and Burke to hold down the win. The game was still in doubt in the 9th when O'Neil roped a 2-out single to keep a mini-rally alive, but John McGraw (MRE) was gunned down by Cobb when he tried for 3rd.
The UL offense struck in the eighth inning, scoring their runs off of starter Sheets (7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER). Their were signs of trouble in the 7th when Sheets narrowly got out of a bases loaded jam, and in the eighth he couldn't hold the UL squad back any longer. Catcher Wally Schang (STE) led off with a walk and scored when the next batter, Hugh Duffy (SCS) doubled him home. Octavio Dotel (AM) came in in relief and struck out the side, but not before Mantle singled home Duffy with the game winner.
Game 9: UL 3, FL 0: FL Leads Series 5-4 Nerves? The FL bats died behind a masterful performance from #1 starter Johnson. His line: 9 IP, 3 H, 6 K and a complete game shutout. The most he was in trouble all night was early the 1st when Cy Seymour (SID) doubled Robinson to 3rd but Johnson induced to weak groundouts to end the inning.
The game was close throughout, with the 1st run coming across the plate in 6th on a 1-out HR from Hornsby. The teams entered the 9th with the UL clinging to a 1-0 lead but Adrian Beltre (DBS) hit a 2-run home run off of reliever Poole to put the game out of reach. The game ended on a ground ball double play off the bat of Jeter. The UL was now just 1 game away from knotting the series at 5 all.
Game 10: FL 5, UL 10: Series tied 5-5 The FL fans breathed a huge sigh of relief as their squad scored 3 runs in the top of the first off of starter Schilling when Bonds drilled a 3-run home run deep to right center. Schilling pitched poorly for the third time in the series, lasting just 2 innings this time. The Federal League would add another run in third on a Nap Lajoie Home Run, staking the visitors to a 4 run lead. Nothing would go right for them the rest of the night.
Martinez made his third start for FL and was mediocre early. He struck out the side in the 2nd but gave up two hits. In the third he seemed unnerved when 1st Basemen Jason Giambi (AV) booted a ground ball and gave up his first run of the game when Duffy doubled, moving the runner to third, and Wagner followed with a run scoring force out.
Things got worse in the 4th. A single and a 1-out walk brought Beltre to the plate, who doubled home both runners to bring the UL within 1 run. The next inning Wagner singled to lead off, and while Martinez retired the next two batters, he then grooved a fastball to Willie McCovey who drove the 1-0 offering deep into the night and gave the UL their first lead of the game. That was all for Martinez who left with a line of: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.
The Union League scored again in the 6th but broke open the game for good in the 8th. Dotel started the inning by giving up back to back singles to Jackie Robinson (CWS) and Beltre and the 7th UL runner of the game scored on a force out by pinch hitter Evans. The game was still in reach for the FL team, with the score 7-5 but Duffy and Wagner then each singled home a run and another force out made the game 10-5. The Federal League recorded just one hit, a single, from the 6th inning on.
The two evenly matched teams now found themselves in a 1 game duel, a do or die situation with 3rd starters Higuera and Blanton facing off. Neither starter was effective in their earlier to match-ups, giving up a combined 18 runs in 14 innings.
Both teams went down in order in the first but the Federal League was the first to strike. In the second, Frank Robinson homered with Bonds on base after getting hit by a pitch giving FL an early lead. Higuera would settle down retiring 8 of the next 10 batters he faced.
Meanwhile, Blanton was solid through three innings, yielding just a single and walk while striking out two. But in the 4th Hornsby led off with a single, Gehrig followed with a run scoring double to right center, and after a sac bunt, Charlie Keller (CWS) drove home Gehrig on a sac fly. The score was knotted at 2.
Both teams scored in the 5th. Beltre homered for the UL and Bill Dickey (MRE) scored on a sac fly after tripling to lead off the inning. In the 6th Gehrig homered and put the UL on top 4-3. Higuera pitched great, lasting through 7 giving up just 2 hits all night. Soriano relieved him and retired the side in order in the 8th. Similarly, the UL pen was solid - Warren Hacker (SID), Pool, and Dizzy Dean (CD) pitched the 6th - 9th innings giving up just 2 hits and no runs.
The game would likely have been over had the closer Burke not thrown 55 innings the night before. He stayed in the game for 13 batters and was spent. As a result Soriano was forced into a 6-out save situation, but never recorded an out in the 9th. Ted Williams (MRE) started things off with a single, battling Soriano for 7 pitches before lacing a liner to center. Bonds came up and hit a ground ball in the 2nd base hole just hard enough to get past Gehrig and Hornsby. Amazingly, Bonds then took second on defensive indifference, a terrible call by the AI to put the winning run in scoring position with nobody out. Sure enough the next batter, Robinson again, hit a ground ball single over second base, driving in both Williams and Bonds and winning the game.
Here are some reports:
And if you didn't notice, the box scores are linked above each game summary.
The ATB All-Star "Game" is to be held in the middle of the upcoming sim. The "game" is actually a best of eleven series and the winning team gets World Series home field advantage for it's league. The named starters will start in all odd number games, with the back-ups starting in even numbered games. Manager profiles will be identical, with pinch hitting and relief pitching usage cranked up to at least give the appearance of an All Star contest. Parks will be the two oldest active not already picked by an owner - 1916 Wrigley Field and 1923 Yankee Stadium.
In case you are worried, the All Star Series is treated as an exhibition with injuries turned off and has no impact to the real league whatsoever, not even fatigue or pitch counts.
Here are the rosters and a brief synopsis of which league has the edge. There are no requirements for at least 1 representative for every team, but it did happen to work out that this year no team is left un-represented.
OFFENSE
The Federal League enjoys a slight advantage on offense, from top to bottom they have a few better hitters than the squad from the Union League. As you will see, the difference is almost entirely due the fact that the Union has no answer to Ted Williams; the Fed's have two 1.000+ OPS starters while the Union has just one:
The Federal's start with four batters who get on base at a 40% clip and every member from 2nd to 5th in the lineup slugs at least .500. Indeed, the entire team averages a .500 slugging percentage. The Union squad has the best lead-off hitter in the game, Ty Cobb, followed by the best hitting catcher in the game, King Kelly.
The two teams are truly evenly matched. The green highlight denotes a better hitting position in the lineup, while yellow denotes the two competitors are about equal.
Defensively, the Federal League holds the advantage with 6 players rated at Vg or better for their range. The Unioners have 4.
STARTING PITCHING
The starting pitchers of Union League best their opponents in every single major pitching category. This is born out by the starting pitcher to starting pitcher comparisons as well:
Whatever edge the Federal League had is squarely given away by the superiority of the Union League starting rotation. Each member of the UL is better than their counterpart. True, a lot of this is because the Black Sox play in the Bee-Hive, the best pitching park in the game, but their starters are not to be underrated. This is a significant advantage for the UL.
BENCH and BULLPEN
The Top 3 pitchers for the FL are better than the top 3 from the UL. Each sport ERA's under 1.60 and have combined for an 8-1 record. The middle reliever corps are about equal, and shouldn't play too much of a factor.
Hitting versus defense. Led by Tip O'Neill, a 1.000+ OPS outfielder who can't crack the starting lineup thanks to Ted Williams and Barry Bonds, the FL's bench is full of good hitters. The UL are clearly weaker, but perhaps make up form it with 2 Ex and 2 Vg defenders for situations close and late.
CONCLUSION It's a 7 game series that anybody can win, but the edge has to go to the UL because they better the FL in single most important player of each game - the starting pitcher.
I'll post the results tomorrow. In the meantime, here is the representation by team:
And …… we’re back on track.
There are two 40-win teams in ATB and they both happen to reside in the Federal League. The New York Blues and Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs had great Sim’s (combined 20-9) and are now tied for first place, a full 5 games ahead of the third place Dyersville Black Sox. Neither team lost a series and if you take a look at the standings charts you can see how the two clubs are fast pulling away from the pack. Of course, it is still early, and last time a race was pronounced in jeopardy the following week there was a three way tie for 1st.
The Insomniacs had a strong week from the heart of their lineup – Dan Brouthers, Arky Vaughan, and Reggie Jackson combined for 42 RBI in 15 games and King Kelly batted .405 in his 42 at-bats. Guy Hecker was the star for the rotation, going undefeated in 3 starts, walking three and striking out 16 while maintaining a miniscule ERA of just 2.11
The Blues were solid too, going 9-5 but yielding a few games in the standings to their rivals in large part due to reliever John Smoltz, who coughed up 3 wins in relief, giving up 20 hits in just 10 2/3 innings pitched. Ron Guidry was the best starter (2.84 ERA, 4 G) but could only manage one win thanks to a bullpen that was shaky at times. Luckily, Cal Ripken batted .404 with a .596 slugging, and Willie McCovey slugged .786 and scored 10 runs during the week of games.
While playing just over .500, the Black Sox did lowering their team ERA to 3.38, by far the best in all of baseball. On the season, Randy Johnson is easily the best pitcher in the game, giving up just 69 hits in over 90 innings of work and his 2.45 ERA best by a wide margin. But the Black Sox also rely heavily on Curt Schilling, who leads the league in wins, and Jason Schmidt (5 W, 3.11 ERA). In fact, the only starter with an ERA below league average is Pud Galvin. Their bullpen is talented – Mike Timlin (0.55 ERA), Joe Nathan (1.67 ERA), Willie Hernandez (1.69 ERA), and Rick Aguilera (1.86 ERA) can shut down games in the latter innings as the team's 31-3 record when leading after 7 can attest.
Over in the Union League, the Manetheren Red Eagles had a good week, going 9-5 and capturing 1st place. Thanks to a potent offense, the Red Eagles now have the best run differential in the game. Hot on their heels though are the Staten Island Dumpers and Planet 10, both teams within a few games of first place. Planet 10 had been the division leader, but a 6-8 week halted their long stretch atop the division.
From here on out I'll report on Wild Card race, but it is much too early to pay close attention. Remember, top two non-division winners, regardless of leagues, advance to the playoffs.
* Currently tied for division lead
Other News / Notes
11/03/07 - Different Approaches to Run Scoring Through sim 5A six offenses have separated themselves from the field of 16, scoring over 300 runs and opening up a sizeable lead over the remaining 10 teams in terms of total runs scored. Not coincidentally, each of these six are less than 2.5 games out first place and as the summer heats up, these offenses will look to take advantage of their runs scoring abilities.
Two of these teams however, have additionally separated themselves from the "pack of 6" by scoring almost 6 runs per game. Interestingly, they have separate and distinct approaches to run scoring:
- Team A is 1st in the league with 102 HR. - Team B is 12th in the league, and just 4 HR from being 14th (45 HR)
- Team B is an on-base machine, with an incredible .387 team on base, a full 14 points better than the 2nd best team. - Team A has a team on base of .348, just above league average.
- Team A is batting .290 / .348 / .464, .8121 OPS - Team B is batting .311 / .387 / .425, .8124 OPS
Team A is the New York Blues, and Team B is the Manetheren Red Eagles. Here's a brief look into each starting lineup.
The Blues are obviously a dangerous team. 7 of the 9 lineups slots are slugging over .450 when the league average is just .405, and 5 of the top 25 HR hitters in the entire game are on the squad. At current pace, they will have just one regular fail to hit 15 HR, and an incredible 5 of them will have hit 30 or more. Mickey Mantle is in the midst of a historic season, with legitimate chances at 50 HR, 120 R, and 155 RBI and finally, the teams #8 hitter Al Rosen, may reach 100 RBI before all is said and done. All in all, with the exception of Mike Piazza in the 8-hole, each person in the line-up is dangerous.
The Blues are 11-3 when hitting 3 or more home runs and have had just 7 games all season where they have failed to hit at least one ball out the park. They happen to play their home games in one of most prolific home-run hitting parks of all time, but interestingly enough, they win just as often on the road as they do at home.
Of course, as with any home run heavy team, there is the potential weakness of getting shut-down waiting for the 3-run home run that never happens. But the Blues seem to account for this by batting .290 as team, and winning 13 of 20 when hitting 'just' 1 home run. The most telling stat is the fact that they don't consistently win until they score 6 or more runs. The list below is the team's W-L in games they score "X" runs.
0: 0-1 1: 0-2 2: 2-5 3: 1-2 4: 6-3 5: 2-4 6: 4-1 7: 7-4 8: 4-0 9: 5-0
The Manetheren Red Eagles on the other hand, are almost entirely scoring runs through attaining multiple hits in an inning. They are built remarkably well for this thanks to the fact the first 8 hitters in the lineup all get on base at clips of .380 or better. And the first four of these players, led by Ted Williams at .471, all get on base well above 40% of the time.
The Red Eagles have failed to score at least 3 runs just 8 times this season and lead the league in games (10) where they have scored 10 or more times. They lead all offenses in Batting Average, On-Base, RC/27, TAVG, OPS, and K/BB ratio for batters, yet are doing all this despite hitting just 0.8 HR's per contest.
In their last 13 games, the Red Eagles have averaged 7.7 runs per contest batting .363 / .437 / .498 as a team.
Two teams. Two different philosophies. Two great offenses.
10/24 - Week 3: Union Domination (OLD SIM THAT WAS RE-RUN)
And in the blink of an eye the Federal League is turned upside down. Last week at this time the Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs held a 1.5 game lead, but more importantly, looked to be one of the powerhouses of ATB. Fast forward one Sim Week (14 games for them) and the Insomniacs are in 3rd place, fighting to stay above .500. It was a truly awful week. Their hitters posted a .239 AVG and .318 SLG while their rotation could manage just 6 quality starts (43%); the two facts combined made them the 2nd worst team in the Sim at 3 wins against 11 losses, getting outscored by 41 in the process.
Taking advantage of this slip were the Dyersville Black Sox who now stand a few games over .500 after going 8-5. Pitching is the key to any sort of Dyersville success. Their rotation is led by Randy Johnson (5-0, 2.20 ERA) and Hank Aguirre (3-4, 3.73 ERA) but Jason Schmidt (4-3, 2.95 ERA) and Curt Schilling (3-3, 4.12 ERA) have been impressive as well. Only Pud Galvin has been worse than the league average in terms of ERA. The bullpen head is Joe Nathan (2.30 ERA, league leading 13 saves) but Willie Hernandez has been virtually unhittable, giving up just 10 hits in 21+ innings of work. His ERA currently stands at a miniscule 0.86.
The worst team in the Sim, and perhaps the worst team in the entire game, appears to be the Saginaw Slammers. Despite playing the homer-happy Baker bowl the Slammers are scoring just 4.1 runs per game, tied for 2nd worst in the game. Their slugging average is well below the league average (.389 vs .401) which coupled with their .237 team batting average has brought forth a disaster for the pre-season playoff hopeful. The team is now 13-26 and 9.5 games back.
In the Union League, Planet 10 had the best record thanks to a stellar batting line (.307 / .373 / .436) and timely good starting pitching (3.51 Team ERA). After another great Sim, Jack Chesbro is 6-0 with an ERA of 1.30. He finally had some help this week though, as Luis Tiant (3-0, 3.20 ERA) and Denny McLain (1-1, 2.57) pitched very well. Still, there is cause for concern since on the season Planet 10 has still given up more runs than any other. The two offensive hero's during the week were Barry Bonds (4 HR, 10 R, 13 RBI) and Oscar Charleston (.433 / .469 / .600). Planet 10 surpassed the CosaNostra Deliverators in the standings and now hold a 1.5 game lead.
Other than the new 1st place teams the main story of Sim 3 was the domination of the Federal League during interleague play. Every game in Sim 3 was interdivisional, and only one team had a losing record against the Union League (Staten Island Dumpers, 4-10), with the rest combining for a 55-38 record (.591 Wpct.). On the season the Federal League's record is a bit more even at 87-73 (.544 Wpct) but a strong trend has certainly emerged. This is key as the the two wild card teams are the ones with the next best records, regardless of league, meaning a division is allowed to have 3 of the 4 playoff teams. Here are each team's record in Inter League play:
Taking my Cuts (Tom Verducci Style)
10/22 - Looking at the New Player Seasons (Batting Edition) With the influx of new owners to ATB IX we have seen a corresponding influx of new players onto our player list. During the off season several hundred 1800’s Players, Negro Leaguers, 2006 Players, and new draft preferences from owners have increased our source database to an astounding 509 batter-seasons and 433 pitcher seasons. These are truly the greatest 1000 or so seasons of all time, at least within our selection criteria.
Each season owners undoubtedly think they are smarter than a previous owner and either change the year used or draft outside the norm, looking for the hidden gem to help take them to the title. What follows is a review of some of these batting choices after 45 games of play. We’ll hit up the pitchers next week, once the sample size grows a bit and the starters have 10 games under their belts.
GOOD CHOICES Oscar Charleston, 1925 – Planet 10 .354 / .380 / .519, .900 OPS, 7 HR, 31 R, 28 RBI, 14 SB, 5 CS
Planet 10 took a gamble in selecting the Negro League center fielder with the 14th pick of the fourth round, which is of course very early for a unknown quantity. It has paid off however – Charleston is in the top 5 at his position, combining very good outfield defense with power and speed. He leads all centerfielders in runs scored and is second in Runs Created behind only Mickey Mantle.
Paul Waner, 1928 – Absurdville Madness .383 / .434 / .518, .952 OPS, 1 HR, 13 R, 20 RBI
The 1934 version of Paul Waner has had mild ATB success in the past though never given a true starting job (at least in recent memory). The Madness selected Waner in the 14th round and he soon became their #3 hitter against both lefties and righties. Shocking as that may seem, the left-hand hitting right fielder has been great, leading his team in Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging. (Then again, maybe this is more of an indictment of the third worst offense in the game?)
Ty Cobb, 1915 – Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs .359 / .432 / .473, .906 OPS, 3 HR, 28 R, 11 RBI, 15 SB, 6 CS
Cobb, of course, has been a perennial powerhouse in ATB so it was more than a mild risk for the Insomniacs to change the selection year to 1915. Interestingly, this is now Cobb’s 4th different season tried in ATB, and while in most cases owners try multiple seasons of a player as a way figure out what’s wrong, in Cobb’s case it is more attributable to how many great “real-life” years he’s had. The Insomniacs wanted on-base percentage out of their lead-off slot and he’s currently 5th in the league in the category.
Billy Hamilton, 1894 – Babe & Babe .320 / .429 /.367, .796 OPS, 0 HR, 26 R, 8 RBI, 21 SB, 7 CS
A 6th Rounder, Hamilton is living up to expectations and performing exactly along the lines of his real life Hall of Fame career –high average, great on-base, little power, and speed to burn. Given that Hamilton is Babe & Babe’s lead-off hitter he is meeting all expectations leading his team in Stolen Bases & On-base percentage, while maintaining 2nd place in batting average and runs scored.
Josh Gibson, 1938 – Fullerton Big Trains .333 / .393 / .625, 1.018 OPS, 9 HR, 23 R, 18 RBI
The second Negro Leaguer to make this list, and the first catcher taken in the draft (5th Round), Gibson is a powerhouse featuring a .600+ Slugging Percentage and 1.000+ OPS, both easily the best marks of any back-stop in the game. In fact, among qualified leaders at the catcher position, Gibson is 1st in OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, R, and RC. Unfortunately for Fullerton, he’s also the only batter hitting with any consistency on the team.
Honorable Mentions John McGraw, 1899 – Manetheren Red Eagles (.481 OBP, 30 R) Pete Browning, 1887 – CosaNostra Deliverators (.343 AVG, 28 R, 20 RBI)
NOT-SO-GOOD CHOICES Bill Mazeroski, 1966 – Babe & Babe .167 / .180 / .217, 397 OPS, 1 HR, 6 R, 11 RBI
I understand Maz is on the field everyday for his outstanding defense (Ex/30) but can any team really carry a player with a .397 OPS? Selected late (21st Round) it will be interesting to see how long Babe & Babe sticks with the second basemen, especially with the potentially powerful Jeff Kent waiting in the wings.
Robin Ventura, 1999 – Fullerton Big Trains .175 / .206 / .206, .412 OPS, 0 HR, 8 R, 5 RBI
Robin Ventura is in a similar position as Mazeroski having been drafted late (24th) for mainly defensive purposes, but may soon find himself out of starting job because his stick is simply too light. In 97 AB Ventura has hit just 3 extra base hits, all doubles.
Tony Gwynn, 1987 – Seattle Tax Evaders .235 / .264 / .259, .524 OPS, 0 HR, 6 R, 7 RBI
In perhaps the worst return on investment of any player drafted, Gwynn has been a bust from the get go. The Tax Evaders must be second guessing their draft choice for A) choosing 1987 (.370 /.447 / .511) instead of 1994 (.394 / .454 / .568) and B) choosing Gwynn so early. In ATB VIII using the better 1994 season, Gwynn wasn’t drafted until the middle of Round 19.
Joe Torre, 1966 – Saginaw Slammers .200 / .245 / .320, .565 OPS, 4 HR, 10 R, 8 RBI
I am pretty sure the Slammers recognized there were better years out there for Torre (1970 & 1971) but the team philosophy was power at all costs. Torre fit that mold for an 11th round catcher with his .568 SLG. In his defense, Torre has hit 4 HR, good enough for 4th among catchers, and is 4th in shutting down the running game, but the rest of his stats are terrible.
Jose Reyes, 2006 – Planet 10 .268 / .294 / .289, .583 OPS, 0 HR, 16 R, 8 RBI
If there is one thing long time ATB’ers know to stay away from its low average batters with minimal walk rates. Of all players drafted for ATB IX, Reyes was in the bottom 13% in terms of Walks per Plate Appearance and when adding in the fact that he’s batting “just” .300 (235th of 281 batters) his name on this list is not all that surprising. I am guessing Planet 10 knew this as well since he was drafted in the 28th round, and taken 19 rounds after the team’s 1st choice at shortstop – Nomar Garciaparra.
This is probably a good place to mention that the ‘real-life’ league average batting lines and pitching lines are
.331 AVG, .415 OBP, .559 SLG 2.01 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 6.5 K/9
Honorable Mentions Roberto Alomar, 1999 – Fullerton Big Trains (.207 AVG) Craig Biggio, 1998 – Ridgewood Houdini’s (.288 OBP, .285 SLG) David Wright, 2005 – Santa Cruz Honking Seals (.575 OPS)
10/17 - Week 2 - Making Statements
Long time ATB regulars, Mike Smitko and Justin Petronzi, each made strong statements this week about who is to be crowned ATB king. Going a combined 20-7, and outscoring their opponents by 55 runs, both the CosaNostra Deliverators and Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs forged their way into first place after roughly one month of play. On the season the two rivals are ranked one-two in run differential, and each feature a balanced attack through high powered offenses and very good rotations.
The key to the Deliverators attack is their powerful 1-3 batters, each with excellent on-base percentages ranging from .389 to .424. “Gladiator” Pete Browning, Wade Boggs, and Shoeless Joe Jackson may not have the power to match up against several other teams, but the three in tandem are a force to be reckoned with. Browning is batting .360 with 18 Stolen Bases and 16 Runs Scored; Boggs is batting .299 with a on base percentage hovering around .390; and Jackson is the catalyst batting .351 with 8 doubles and 20 runs scored. Behind these three several players of opportunity who drive in runs – Jim Edmonds (5 HR, 13 RBI), Travis Hafner (4 HR, 11 RBI), Darren Daulton (4 HR, 8 RBI in a platoon with Javy Lopez), and Nap Lajoie (10 XBH, 16 RBI) stack up against almost any lineup.
The success of their pitching rotation starts with Pedro Martinez (2.96 ERA, 49 K) but several lesser-known pitchers are driving the overall success for CosaNostra. Silver King (2.92 ERA), Russ Ford (4-1, 1.73 ERA), and Derek Lowe (1.90) are all pitching extremely well and the relief corps as a whole are allowing just 28% of their inherited runners to score (league average is 34%).
Rockaway, a team if your recall that had the overall pick in the draft, managed to put together a pretty good rotation - Tommy Bond (3.92 ERA, Monty Stratton (4.28 ERA), Ted Lyons (3.30 ERA), and Guy Hecker (1.29 ERA) are all consistent, but the key to this team’s pitching success appears to be its bullpen. Closer Eric Gagne has been un-hittable, giving up just 10 hits in 13 2/3 innings while striking out an incredible 28 batters. Gabe White (13 IP, 11 H, 1 BB, 11 K), Pat Jarvis (14.2 IP, 12 H, 6 K), Eddie Plank (11.2 IP, 1.54 ERA), and to a certain extent Takashi Saito (12 IP, 17 K, but 18 H) are all feared and together can shut down the late innings of a game, as evidenced by a team record of 14-0 when leading after 7 innings.
Their offense may be the best in the game considering the ballpark they play in (Skydome): 1) Ty Cobb - .458 / .536 / .597, 15 SB, 21 R 2) King Kelly - .390 OBP, 14 R 3) Arky Vaughan - .301 / .383 / .484, 11 2B, 21 RBI 4) Dan Brouthers - .310 / .367 / .494 5) Reggie Jackson - .313 / .371 / .672, 5 HR, 16 R, 17 RBI 6) Ed Delahanty - .368 OBP, 9 2B | |
