All Time Baseball X - Archives

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01/22 - Week 11:  Backing In

01/16 - Playoff Odds Redux

01/15 - Week 10

01/09 - Whoops, forgot to save the write-up for Week 9

01/04 - Playoff Odds, Earl Weaver Race

01/02 - Week 8 (No Writeup)

12/24 - Week 7

12/22 - All Star Game

12/17 - Week 6

12/11 - Week 5

12/03 - Week 4

11/25 - Week 3

11/19 - Week 2

11/12 - Week 1 Complete – New Guy Sets the Bar

11/09 - Opening Weekend

10/27 - Battle O' The Divisions

10/21 - Barnstorming Bonanza

10/16 - Mock Draft Results

 

Week 11 - Backing In

 

 

With just two weeks remaining on the schedule, the completion of Sim 11 marked the beginning of the "end run" for ATB X.  Two races are still legitimately up for grabs (Pangea T-Rex is 5 out with 14 to go, and it appears the Joe McCarthy race is now over) but the none of the four teams in contention could manage a winning record during the past two plus weeks. 

 

Earl Weaver Division

The division leading Malkier Golden Cranes lost 8 of 13, dropping series to the Staten Island Dumpers, Lima de Equipo, Pangea, and the Flatbush Avenues.  They fell to 3-7 vs Staten Island on the season, and with 8 games remaining the Dumpers in large part control who marches to the playoffs from the Earl Weaver Division.  Starters Ted Lyons (5.79 ERA) and Bill Bernhard (5.27 ERA) were the main culprits going 1-4 in six starts.  The bullpen struggled too - Tom Niedenfuer, Takashi Saito, Jeff Zimmerman, Bill Henry, and Bob Howry combined for a 7.98 ERA in 25 innings.  Remarkably, the Canes lost 4 extra inning contests as well, three of which were a direct result of poor pitching out of the pen.

 

Winterfell has suffered through grievous injuries to the starting rotation and are lucky to be in a position to still challenge for the division title.  Bobby Shantz (#1 in Quality), Jason Schmidt (#2 in position), and Mike Scott all went down with multiple week injuries and left the team with just 4 starters to round out Sim 11.  Free Agent pickup Frank Sullivan was roughed up in his only start as a replacement.  The rest of the staff, led by a stellar week from Dick Hall (17 2/3 IP, 1.02 ERA in relief) stepped up and allowed the team to stay within a half game of the division lead.  In fact, for a day, Winterfell led the division outright. 

 

Similar to Malkier, Winterfell's fortunes largely rest upon one team, this time the Absurdville Madness.  The two squads face off 10 more times and with Winterfell winning 6 of 8 so far this year, they must be considered most likely to win the division.  Plus, the injured Shantz returns to start teh first of Sim 12 as well, and if this paragraph of truth doesn't jinx my team, then jinxes simply don't exist.

 

Connie Mack Division

The Cincinnati Venus Flytraps lost 10 of 12 during Sim 11 and can safely be written off.  The Charleston Chews, who have led the division for most of the year, currently lead the division by 1/2 game over the upstart Harlem Rangers.  There was plenty of blame going around to explain the poor weeks from both teams, but a few standouts are worth mentioning.

 

Star centerfielder for Charleston, Joe DiMaggio, had just 6 hits in 54 at bats and compiled a horrific .310 OPS.  Fellow outfielder Gary Sheffield tried his best to top DiMaggio, but came up short with a .362 OPS.  The Chews offense as a whole batted .163 with a .244 on base percentage and .283 slugging percentage. 

 

The Rangers were done in by their pitching staff:  Starters Kevin Appier (4.76 ERA in 3 GS), Walter Johnson (5.25 ERA in 2 GS), and Tom Glavine (7.64 ERA in 4 GS) were by far the worst offenders.  However, the bullpen was almost as bad, letting almost 45% of their inherited runners to score.  Goose Gossage and Latroy Hawkins to combined to give up 13 runs in 12 2/3 innings hurled.

 

The Rangers face Planet 10 nine times to finish the season while the Chews pit their fortunes on 8 games against Lot O Lefties.  Planet 10 is easily the worst team in the Alexander Cartwright League and have already dropped 7 of 9 during the season to the Rangers.  The Lefties have gone 28-17 since August 1, a full 11.5 games better than the Chews.  I'll leave it up to you to consider who has the edge over the last 15 days.

 

Clinching and Mathematical Eliminations

  • Congratulations to the DC Chips who clinched the Walter Alston Division, have won 9 in a row, and are gunning for a 115 win season.

  • The Chips surge eliminated the only other 90 win team in the game, John McDonald Fanclub, as well as the Baltimore Black Sox

  • Planet 10, Absurdeville Madness, Flatbush Avenues, and the Homestead Grays also bowed out during Sim 11.

 

 

01/16:  Playoff Odds Redux

 

Thought I would take the time to calculate the playoff odds for all teams still in the hunt.  A little bit of background for the new users:

 

Bill James, maybe 20 years ago if not longer, devised a formula to predict the likely outcome of game based upon the winning percentages of the two teams involved in the contest.  For example, when a 110 win team plays a 60 win team they should 78.3% of the time.  When two 81 win teams face off, the teams will split obviously, and so on.  I took this a bit further and am using the formula to predict the rest of the season based upon strength of schedule.  It's flawed for sure, but still gives a good estimate in my opinion.  It answer the question of what happens when, for example, a .600 WPCT team plays out the rest of the season against competition that plays at a .450 Wpct level. 

 

A further wrinkle is that I use Power Alley winning percentages as opposed to either Standard or Pythagorean win percentages.  I do this because I feel it's provides a better estimation of the true talent level of the team.  Standard win percentage has a large amount of luck built in to it (1 run games for instance, largely luck as opposed to team skill) and the Pythagorean style percentage can overlook a valid reason why a team that outscores their opponents doesn't have as good a record.  Perhaps their bullpen is awful, or they have an inordinate amount of lopsided wins. 

 

Below are the predicted outcomes of the division races based upon winning percentages only (does not take into consideration Home/Away records, injuries, etc).

 

Joe McCarthy Division

In the Sim 10 write-up I called it a toss-up between the two teams, but according to the model, Lima still has a decent advantage.  It makes sense though, as too often we're caught up in the last 10 games as opposed to the last 80.  Sure, Lima has been dreadful recently but we shouldn't be too quick to disregard how good they were early on  They weren't as good as the played in May and they aren't as bad as the appeared in August.  As it stands now, Lima should play .500 the rest of the way and Pangea projects to play .586 ball (95 wins in 162 game pace).  If Lima played .500 ball, Pangea would need to go 18-9 to tie, and 19-8 to take the division title.  Not impossible, but not likely either.

 

 

Earl Weaver Division

Here, the Pythagorean process hurt Winterfell.  Despite almost identical records, the Direwolves run differential is much worse than Malkier's, giving them a Pythagorean win percentage of .562.  This is significantly worse than Malkier's .605.  The adjustment to include the Power Alley winning percentage, brings the Direwolves up to .569, and the Golden Cranes down slightly to .598.  When a .569 (WD) team plays .488 competion, we can expect a .581 Wpct.  When a .598 (MGC) team plays .517 competition, we can expect a similar result - .582 Wpct.  All things being equal, both Malkier and Winterfell should go 15-11 from here on out and finish 1 game a part.

 

 

Connie Mack Division

The Connie Mack is the only place where we can expect the gap to widen, with Charleston project to double their current 1.5 game lead.  Here, only the Chews have an above average Power Alley winning percentage, and all competition for each of the three teams is below .500, though The Flytraps are as close to .500 as one can get.  They, along with Harlem project to split their 26 remaining games and finish 3 and 4 games off the pace.  With so few games remaining, the difference between Harlem's expected .516 wining percentage and Cincinnati's expected .487 winning percentage is minimal.  Harlem should win 13.4 games, Cincy 12.7.  They both average to 13.

 

 

01/15:  Sim 10 Roundup - What a Difference a Week Makes

 

 

In early August I declared 3 of the 4 the divisional races all but over, and with good cause.  Lima de Equipo held an 11.5 game lead on Pangea T-Rex; the Charleston Chews had a 7.5 game lead over the floundering Cincinnati Venus Flytraps; and the quite incredible DC Chips held a commanding 16.5 game lead over John McDonald Fanclub.  The fourth Division opened August with a tight race between the Malkier Golden Cranes and the Winterfell Direwolves.  Almost a month later, the only divisional race not in question is in Walter Alston, where the Chips still hold a 13 game lead of Fanclub.

 

Joe McCarthy Division

It's plain to these eyes that Pangea is simply a better team than Lima, but with less than a month of the season remaining, will they have enough time to make up the 4.5 games?  Since July 1 Pangea is 34-23 with a +66 Run Differential, 2nd best in all of Henry Chadwick.  Lima's run differential is not even positive, it's -7.  It's markedly worse since August 1:  22-9 and +57 for Pangea, and 15-18 and an ugly -21 for de Equipo.  As it stands today, Lima has lost 8 of 10 and opens Sim 11 with a 3-game set against, you guessed it Pangea.  After that Lima has an absolutely brutal schedule:

 

9 games vs. Pangea

6 games vs. Malkier

4 games vs. Winterfell

3 games vs. Absurdville (18-14 since August 1)

2 games vs. Flatbush (34-22 since July 1)

 

The McCarthy race is far from over and I think it is an even toss up as to who wins.

 

Since August 1, the Pangea offense has been carried by Tris Speaker (.374 / .412 / .432, 27 R), Jim Thome (.512 SLG, 9 HR, 29 RBI), and Al Kaline (391 / .509 / .565).  In the rotation, Greg Maddux has yielded just 4 runs in 51 innings (0.71 ERA) while Rafeal Betancourt and Pat Jarvis hold down the pen (31 IP, 20 H, 4 ER)

 

Connie Mack Division

No question, the Chews are struggling.  Having lost 20 of their last 30, Charleston has left the door open for not just the Flytraps, who have been in second place most of the year, but also for the Harlem Rangers, the current 2nd place team just 1.5 games back.  The good news for Charleston is that neither the Rangers nor Flytraps have shown signs of brilliance, a la Pangea.  They are good teams, but likely not great.  Since August 1:

 

 

Still, a 1.5 game lead is tenuous and neither of the three teams can afford mistakes.  The Chews control their own destiny as well - they have no games left versus either the Rangers or Flytraps.  Here's a snapshot of what each team is all about: 

 

 

The Chews rely heavily on the long ball, but sacrifice a lot in batting average and strike out a ton.  The Flytrap and Ranger offenses are almost identical, each walking at a good clip, with very close slash stats.  One differentiating factor is the Rangers reckless abandon on the base paths.  They steal more than their competition, but are successful just 59% percent of the time and are most assuredly running themselves out of many innings.

 

The Chews have the best staff, giving up 30 fewer runs than the Flytraps and 45 fewer than the Rangers.  Team WHIP's are fairly close together, but the Chews simply do not give up the longball, and are just 9 home runs off the pace for best in Alexander Cartwright.  Also, when comparing Cincinnati vs. Charleston, notice the identical 4.05 ERA's in virtually the same number of innings pitched.  Yet, the Flytraps have given up a quite a bit more runs.  Their fielding percentages are the same so why the difference?  Flytraps pitchers have let up 153 home runs, the worst in all of baseball.

 

Earl Weaver Division

I've already spent a lot of time with this division, since up until now it appeared to be the only interesting one.  The race will come down to an awfully difficult schedule for Malkier versus a 16 game injury to Winterfell's best pitcher.  On the last day of Sim 10, Bobby Shantz went down with a long injury for the second time this year (he missed 18 games in May too) and the Direwolves will miss at least three of his scheduled starts.  On the other hand, Malkier has 11 games remaining against Staten Island (.540 Wpct), 6 games against the McCarthy leading Lima, 3 against the Flatbush Avenues who have won 8 of 13 against them, and finally 2 against the hottest team in baseball  - Pangea.

 

It's a fun standings chart, I count 9 lead changes this year:

 

Select 2nd Half Pitching Leader boards (post All Star Break)

 

Select 2nd Half Batting Leader boards (post All Star Break)

 

 

01/04 - Playoff Odds, Earl Weaver Race

It's a shame but I have no choice but to admit it.  ATB X has been a let down in terms of divisional races.  On the positive side, the best 4 teams will likely make the playoffs, which show promise of great match-ups come early October.  But here in early August, only one division has a race within 6 games and two divisions are 11 or more game blow-outs.

 

The remaining legitimate race is between two arch-rival owners, Mike Smitko of the Malkier Golden Cranes and yours truly of the Winterfell Direwolves.  Adding fuel to the fire of this race in particular is some personal history - Mike sits in the cube next to me, he's the godfather of my youngest daughter, I was in his wedding, etc, etc, etc.  More importantly (for this sake anyway) there is a lot of fantasy pride on the line.  I am second all time with 855 career ATB wins, he's 3rd with 845 (Justin Petronzi, T-Rex owner is comfortably in the overall lead with 881); and we constantly do battle in a money Rotisserie league that several other owners participate in as well.  Not to mention the dozens of routine sport difference any two people compete through.  I really want to beat the bastard, and the feeling is mutual I am sure.  This is great drama for cubes 1C142C and 1C143C at AT&T-Bedminster, but not so much for the league as a whole.  Still, it's what we've got and I will give the race it's due. 

 

As of the end of Sim 8, the Malkier Golden Cranes own a 65-43 record for a 1/2 game lead on the Winterfell Direwolves.  The Cranes have been slightly better since July 1, with 3 game lead during the timeframe, but Winterfell has a 1.5 game lead since both June 1 and May 1.   Head to Head this year it's been no contest as the Cranes took 9 of 13, outscoring the Wolves 53-42 in the process, including a Pedro Martinez no-hitter. 

 

From this angle, one would think Winterfell would be alarmed but closer inspection reveals they face the Golden Cranes just 5 out of their next 51 games.  This leads down the path of home/away splits and strength of schedule.  The Direwolves have a stellar home record at 40-19 but play just .500 on the road, this is bad news for Wolves fans since 29 of their remaining contests are on the road versus 22 at home, including a brutal 15 game road trip starting at the end August and miserable finish to the season of 27 of  32 are outside the confines of their home, PNC Park.

 

Malkier is a more balanced with a .630 home winning percentage and a very goad road win percentage of .574.  They have an even split the rest of the way, 27 home and 27 away. 

 

Head to head, home/road advantages, and general team play over the past month give Malkier a clear advantage so far.  One item remains however, and it's strength of schedule:

 

Note:  P Wpct is P Wpct is Pythagorean Win Percentage, based upon a teams Runs Scored and Runs Allowed, which is a better predictor of how they'll play in the future.

 

In addition, the last week of the season is brutal on Malkier, with 11 consecutive games against Staten Island and Lima, two very good teams.

Plug these winning percentages into a handy Bill James Predicted Wins formula, and we get a 97 win tie atop the Earl Weaver Division.

 

Will it be the home/road difference advantage for Malkier or the the strength of schedule advantage for Winterfell?  We'll know in a few short sims.

 

01/02 - Week 8


 

 

 

12/24 - Week 7:  One Race Tightens, While the Rest....


 

With Babe Ruth back on his game, the once tenuous lead for Lima de Equipo in the Joe McCarthy division again appears safe.  Lima went 9-5 in Sim 7 and opened a 10.5 game lead over Pangea Tyrannosaurus Rex.  The dinosaurs struggled, going 6-8 as their staff ace, Greg Maddux, no longer pitched like an immortal splitting 4 games with a 3.72 ERA.  Pangea lost 6 games in a row before righting their ship against the Winterfell Direwolves on the last day of the Sim.

 

The Direwolves themselves struggled, playing a game under .500 and splitting a series against their number one competition, the Malkier Golden Cranes, and lost 2 of 3 to the third place Staten Island Dumpers.  The Cranes enjoyed a huge week from Jeff Bagwell (.462 / .525 / .769) and Jeff Zimmerman continued to shine as well; he is now considred the best closer on the season to date.  The Dumpers won 8 of 13 and remain on the cusp of challenging for the Earl Weaver division title.  As the third place team however, the Dumpers need both the Direwolves and Cranes to struggle in order to catch up, a prospect that doesn't seem too likely.  Both the Direwolves and Cranes on pace for 90+ win seasons; and it's been a tight race since the beginning of June:

 

 

The biggest movement of the week comes in the Connie Mack Division where the Charlestown Chews went 8-4 to take a significant lead over the Cincinnati Venus Flytraps.  The Flytraps picked a horrible week to lose 7 of 11 and went from a first place tie to a 3.5 game deficit.  The Chews had good weeks from Mike Piazza (.353 / .436 / .647), Gary Sheffield (.348 / .455 / .587), Ron Guidry (2-0, 2.81 ERA), and their bullpen.  In relief Brad Ziegler, Rollie Fingers, Frank Williams, and Jonathan Papelbon combined for 30 innings of 4-run ball.

 

Finally, the juggernaut's of the Walter Alston Division continue to blitz their opponents, winning 9 of 12 and extending their lead to an incredible 20 games.

 

Here are the rest of the divisional standings since June 1:

 

 

RSAA and AOPSAP Team Updates

 

It's and incredibly busy chart but telling nonetheless.  By now hopefully you are familiar with the RSAA and AOPSAP charts that are updated each week.  The chart above is a team summary of these reports that a) groups players into similar categories, and b) totals the player point values by team.

 

For instance, take a gander at the DC Chips.  They have:

  • 1 Batter and 1 Pitcher rated Best or Excellent

  • 6 Batters and 7 Pitchers rated Very Good or Above Average

  • 6 Batters and 6 Pitchers rated Average

  • Just 1 Batter Below Average or Poor

  • 2 Batters Very Poor or Horrid.

  • Additionally, they have accumulated 475 AOPSAP points and 73 RSAA Points.  Ratings are assigned to each score on a scale of 1 to 20, and summed in the last column.

Finally, a summary of each player by team can be found here.  This is pretty neat as you can quickly see how your team compares to the others and get a sense your entire 30 man lineup in a glance.  A quick look at the race in the Connie Mack Division:

 

 

 

The Best of the Rest

Which of these numbers is different than the others?

 

57, 57, 58, 64, 69, 72, 218

 

These are the seven best run differentials in the game and there is no longer any doubt that the DC Chips and their +218 RD are the best team in ATB X, and perhaps in all of ATB history.  Since they are so close to one another, the remaining RD scores do leave us with an open question of what the second best team in ATB is.  Power Alley predicts between 90 and 95 wins for the Chews, de Equipo, Direwolves, Dumpers, Golden Cranes, and John McDonald Fanclub and with just half the season complete, these six could finish in any order.  Here's a summariez look at each team:

 

Charleston Chews

RS: 461, 7th

RA: 403, 4th

RD:  58, 5th

 

The Chews play their home games in the homer happy Polo Grounds, circa 1931.  The park features HR factors above 250 while severely repressing all other types of hitting.  Predictably, the team is second in the game in HR but is batting just .241 with a .322 on base percentage.  Their most common lineup is a bit thin up top thanks to third basemen Heinie Zimmerman's .327 OBP, but Mike Piazza (.360 OBP, .480), Mark McGwire (24 HR), and Joe DiMaggio (.302 / .342 / .446) have been solid 3-4-5 hitters.  The bottom third of the lineup is weak, like that virtually all teams, but does averages a .327 on base percentage, far from the worst.

 

Their starting rotation has been a pleasant surprise.  #2 starter Spud Chandler has a 3.22 ERA and has won 8 of 11 decisions while Luis Tiant, the pre-season staff ace, has a solid 3.66 ERA.  Rich Harden and Ron Guidry are about average at 3 and 4, and John Tudor and his 4.86 ERA is about an average 5th starter.

 

The main weak spot of this team is the bullpen.  Once you get past the brilliant closer Jonathan Papelbon (1.23 ERA) there is no "go to" guy to turn to in the late innings.  Rollie Fingers and Brad Ziegler are solid right handed setup men, but also have to fill the same role against lefty batters.  Lefties are hitting .299 / .350 / .441 against Fingers.

 

The Chews should come out of the Connie Mack as no other team in the division has outsourced their opponents.  Once in the playoffs they can do some damage as their rotation gets shortened.

 

Lima de Equipo

RS: 502, 3rd

RA: 445, 13th

RD:  57, 6th

 

Owner of the 1st round draft pick, Lima chose Babe Ruth, stuck him in a prolific hitters park, and it's paid off.  Ruth is bating .356 / .478 / .765 with 39 HR and 92 RBI for a line right out of the real life 1920's.  The top of the lineup is arguably the best in the game with lead off hitter Billy Hamilton and his .376 OBP and 58 steals, Bill Terry (.312 AVG, .357 OBP) batting second, followed by Ruth and Al Rosen, the best third basemen in the game.  Things fall apart in the 5th slot though as Dewey Evans has struggled this season, batting just .235 / .281 / .339 in 92 games.  Hugh Duffy has been a pleasant surprise and should probably move up in the order, and the bottom 3rd of the lineup is pretty good, even when considering Chuck Knoblauch and his .579 OPS out of the 9th hole.

 

As once might imagine from playing in Sportsman's park the starting rotation is taking beating.  Only Andy Pettitte has an ERA under 4.50 and Mark Prior, Dolf Luque, and Andy Benes are sporting earned run averages well over 5.00.  Dennis Eckersley is enjoying a very good year as the closer and Rob Murphy has been great in long relief (2.19 ERA), but the balance of bullpen doesn't strike fear into many batters.

 

This is solid team that should win the Joe McCarthy division, but the lack of pitching depth may constrain them from advance far in the playoffs.

 

Winterfell Direwolves

RS: 468, 6th

RA: 411, 6th

RD:  57, 6th

 

The Direwolves continue to play a bit over their heads as they own the 3rd best record in the league, but only the 6th best Run Differential.    On the other hand, they also started very slowly which has held down their overall statistics which are just now catching up.  With very little home run power, the Direwolves rely on doubles and triples to score runs and pack a superb one-two combination at the top of their lineup.  First basemen Dan Brouthers leads off with a .391 OBP and 29 SB, while league batting leader Tip O'Neil (.387 AVG, .438 OBP, 35 2B) hits second.  Stan Musial is a good #3 hitter but the rest of the lineup can be pitched to.  The team has been struggling all year to find decent bats at the bottom of their lineup and their current starters are pathetic:  .339 OPS for Whitey Kurowski, .620 OPS for Bobby Wallace, and a .529 OPS for Manny Sanguillen.

 

The bullpen is a sweet spot for Winterfell.  Dick Hall, Clay Bucholtz, Ellis Kinder, and JJ Putz all have ERA's under 3.00 while setup man Jeff Gray sports a 1.72 ERA.  The rotation is solid but not spectacular featuring 4 average pitchers and perhaps the steal of the draft, Bobby Shantz.  Shantz is 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA despite being picked in the 22nd round.

 

Unless the Direwolves solve their issues at the back end of the lineup, a betting man has them on the outside looking in come October.

 

Staten Island Dumpers

RS:  497, 4th

RA:  428, 11th

RD:  69, 3rd

 

This is a very good all around team that has underperformed for much of the season.  Their lineup is great:

 

1) Hughie Jennings:  .384 OBP

2) King Kelly:       .416 OBP

3) Ted Williams:     .327 / .433 / .485

4) Willie McCovey:   .300 / .384 / .526

5) Babe Herman:      .298 / .353 / .438

7) Pete Reiser:      .334 / .372 / .469

 

Their rotation solid, with ERA's of:  4.39, 4.13, 3.34, 3.04, and 3.14 out of Al Orth, Chief Bender, Derek Lowe, Joel Horlen, and Johnny Podres respectively.  And they have a good bullpen with Garland Braxton (2.28 ERA), BJ Ryan (2.75 ERA), Tom Gordon (2.55 ERA), and Rafael Soriano (3.48 ERA) performing well in key roles. 

 

So, why the third place record?  Their team defense is terrible.  The Dumpers have the worst fielding percentage in the game, they allow steals at a success rate of 73%, and have average or worse defenders at Catcher, First Base, Left Field, and Right Field.

 

Malkier Golden Cranes

RS: 460, 8th

RA: 388, 3rd

RD:  72, 2nd

 

The Cranes arguably have the best starter and closer in the game, both of whom won "the Great" honors at their respective positions this week.  In the rotation only Monty Stratton has an ERA over 4.00 and Ted Lyons, Bill Bernhard, and Warren Hacker are very good.  It's not just Jeff Zimmerman in the pen either, Takashi Saito, Bill Henry, and Tom Niedenfuerer are solid in their setup and long relief roles. 

 

The issue facing the Cranes is a relatively poor top of the order.  Cy Seymor has too low of an an on base percentage (.341) to be an effective lead off hitter, and Goose Goslin in the two-hole is even worse (.312 OBP).  Player of the Week Jeff Bagwell has been particularly good this year (.333 / .375 / .600) and catcher Josh Gibson is on pace to hit close to 40 HR.  The bottom of the order is no better or worse than most of the other contenders.

 

Defense is a problem as well, the team is tied for last place in fielding percentage with Staten Island.

 

John McDonald Fanclub

RS: 470, 5th

RA: 406, 5th

RD:  64, 4th

 

It's a shame that one of the best teams in the league (so far anyway) has absolutely no chance at making the playoffs.  Currently sitting 20 games out of first, the Fanclub is only playing for pride.  Their offense is very good with only one black hole - catcher Rick Wilkins and his .196 batting average.  The balance of the lineup features good on base average players at the top of the order (Richie Ashburn, Honus Wagner) and good all around 4-5-6 hitters.  An odd quirk is the continued presence of Roberto Clemente batting 3rd - he's been awful this year, batting just .275 / .330 / .377.

 

The rotation is led by early Cy Young favorite,  Blanton (13-1, 2.17 ERA).  Roger Clemens is a good #2 and Ed Siever and Tex Hughson round out a 4-man rotation that is considered well above average. 

 

The bullpen has three key players with ERA's under 3.00 - closer Ted Abernathy, and setup men Dennys Reyes and Grant Balfour.  A major issue however, is the fact Calvin Schiraldi continues to get innings.  He has a 6.17 ERA in 58 innings.

 

As mentioned, this team is playing for statistics and not the playoffs.  If Schiraldi is given the boot (off the team or into a diminished role) their is no reason they can't finish with the second best record in the game.

 

A summary of results each team lineup and rotation:

 

 

 

12/22 - ATB All Star Series

A single game is no way to decide which is the better of two teams so ATB has gone to a non-traditional 11 game format for the All Star game.  This affords us the ability to see all 5 starters twice, plus an ultimate 11th game match-up between the number 1 starters in each league.  And don't worry, I import the raw player data into a new league database so as to not impact any true ATB X results (games, fatigue, injuries, statistics, etc)

 

This is the second year in the 11 game format, and wouldn't you know it, improbably if not impossibly, for the second year in a row the series went to the deciding game.  Box score links and mini-writeups are below

 

Game 1

Greg Maddux (PTR) out duels Cy Blanton (JMF) in a hard fought 5-4 victory for the Henry Chadwick league.  Pete Resier (SID) knocks in the go-ahead run in the 6th and Al Rosen (LdE) had 3 RBI in the victory.

 

Game 2

Pedro Martinez (MGC) lasts 8 innings and gives up just 4 hits, but both are solo shots to Barry Bonds (DC) and Mike Piazza (CC).  Two runs were enough for Alexander Cartwright, who tie the series one apiece behind the arm of Smoky Joe Wood (DC)

 

Game 3

The Henry Chadwick league blitzes Pete Alexander (CVF) in an 8-4 laugher.  Rosen hits his second home run of the series and picks up his 6th RBI, while Hughie Jennings (SID) goes 2-4 with 3 RBI. 

 

Game 4

We're now knotted at 2-2 thanks to a bend but don't break performance by Mort Cooper (BC), who gives up 2 runs and 8 hits in 6 innings.  It was more than enough for the Alexander Cartwright team that wins 7-3 behind Bonds and his 2nd home run of the series. In a losing effort Babe Ruth (LdE) hits two solo shots out of the park.

 

Game 5

The two leagues continue to trade game after game and Henry Chadwick wins easily 9-2.  Ted Lyons (MGC) was masterful (9 IP, 2 R) and Rosen (2 more RBI), Reiser, and Ted Williams (SID) led the offensive explosion.  Roger Clemens (JMF) takes the loss.

 

Game 6
After an off day, its the rematch of game one but this time Maddux is blown out giving up 6 runs in under 2 innings of work.  Cartwright wins 11-5 behind Bonds and Mickey Mantle (CVF), each driving in 3.  Jeff Bagwell homered and drove in 4 in the loss.  The series is tied 3-3.

 

Game 7

Chadwick takes a series lead once agai in a hard fought 7-6 victory.  Both starters, Wood and Martinez, get rocked but each pen holds scoring down for the rest of the game.  Bonds and Mantle hit home runs, their 4th and 3rd respectively. 

 

Game 8

Chadwick leads the series 5 games to 3 with the first back to back victories in the All Star set.  Alexander is ousted in less than an inning, and while Joel Horlen (SID) didn't fear much better, it was enough.  Bagwell hits his second home run and adds another 6 RBI.

 

Game 9

Cartwright scores 5 runs after the eight inning, capped off by a 3-run pinch hit home run by Norm Cash (JMF).  They keep the series alive with a 9-5 victory.

 

Game 10

Facing elimination for the second consecutive game, Cartwright wins again behind the powerful right arm of Clemens who pitches a 3 hit, complete game shutout.  Mantle hits his 4th and Howard Johnson (DC) his 3rd.

 

Game 11

Attempting to avoid losing three straight, Chadwick sends league ace Maddux to the mound for the third time.  It doesn't work as the righty gives up 5 runs in 5 innings.  The final score was 9-6 but it wasn't all that close since Chadwick scored 4 in the ninth.  Lou Gehrig (LOL) was the offensive star, hitting 2 home runs and driving in 7.

 

Series MVP:  Barry Bonds - .310 / .383 / .619, 4 HR, 10 R, 13 RBI, 9.9 RC/27.

 

Team Batting

Team Pitching

 

 

12/17 - Week 6

 

As the mid point of the season approaches one can't help but wonder if this years excitement will be relegated solely to individual feats of greatness and post season play.  The race in the Walter Alston Division continues to be as one sided as can be, with the DC Chips destroying all competition and have maintained staggering pace of 119 wins.  In Joe McCarthy, Lima de Equipo has been struggling (right along side of their star, Babe Ruth) but own a large 7.5 game lead.  The Earl Weaver Division is by no means decided, but the Winterfell Direwolves have played 7 games better than the Malkier Golden Cranes over the month.  This leaves us with at least one potentially great race in Connie Mack, where the Cincinnati Venus Flytraps and Charlestown Chews have played to a stalemate, both tied atop the division.  The story of the week however, may be the movement of the Harlem Rangers, who are now just 4 games back and coming on strong.

 

Before getting into the exploits of the Rangers, we need to spend some time on the exploits of Barry Bonds.  The Chips lead off hitter and left fielder went off this sim, and was awarded Player of the Week honors after season best line of .531 / .646 / 1.082, 1.728 OPS, 8 HR, 18 R, 19 RBI, and 35.7 RC.  On the season, Bonds has surpassed Ruth as the leagues best hitter and is the overall ATB leader in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, Runs, and Home Runs.  I have no doubt had he batted third all year long, he would also be leading the league in RBI.  This feat has never been accomplished in ATB History.  Here's a chart of Bonds' season according to his slash stats:

 

 

As you can see, once the season struck the third week of April, Bonds cruised in terms of his hit rate and walk rate, remaining fairly constant until this past sim where he batted over .500.  His power has been great, but less consistent all season, and most importantly has steadily been on the rise since the last week in May.  He's slugged .918 and hit 18 HR since May 28.

 

Getting back to the Rangers, what has changed their fortunes?  It has been as much of a mini turn around for them as it's been a struggle for the division leaders:

 

 

Over the last 30 days the Rangers have played above .500 (despite being outscored) and the Chews and Flytraps have only won a single game more then they've lost combined.  While credit is due to the Rangers, blame must also be spread to the teams their chasing.  In Sim 5, many lesser thought of batters were the key to the Rangers success:

 

.368 / .429 / .500 - Bobby Doerr

.355 / .500 / .742 - Darren Daulton

.348 / .400 / .500 - Eddie Murray

.343 / .395 / .457 - Barry Larkin

.318 / .423 / .432 - Benny Kauff

 

George Brett was good too, batting .304 and slugging .500, while tying for the team lead in RBI. 

 

Oh, and try not to glance at Planet 10's record over the last month, and definitely shy away from staring at their Run Differential for too long, we're talking 1899 Cleveland Spiders bad.

 

Team Totals Over Past 45 Days

Were three months in, how have teams fared over the past month and a half:

 

 

 

Around the League

  • Quality Start Leaders are Maddux at 15, Clemens at 14, and Blanton and PMartinez at 13

  • Two teams have yet to be shutout - John McDonald Fanclub and the DC Chips

  • Pud Galvin (DC) is getting 7.2 Runs Per game from his offense, best in the game.  This explains his 8-2 record and 4.62 ERA.

  • Luis Tiant has a 3.15 ERA but is two games under .500 at 6-8.  He's only getting 3.9 Runs Per game of support.

  • The worst luck pitcher is Curt Schilling, who's only getting 3.2 runs per game from the bats.  Here's a complete list of starters and their run support (minimum of 12 games pitched).

  • Head to Head oddity?  Despite being 3 games back of Direwolves, the Golden Cranes have beat them 6 of 7 times this year.

  • King Kelly (SID) is the leagues best average hitter in late and close situations (.476).  Frank Thomas (NCP) has the most RBI (15).  And Babe Ruth has the highest Slugging Average (.875).  Here is a complete list of batters, minimum PA of 30 in late and close situations.

  • The Madness hit a HR in 15 consecutive games from May 20 to June 5

  • Over four consecutive days, the Golden Cranes tossed two shutouts and two 1-run games (4/19 - 5/24)

  • The Homestead Grays lead the league in 1st inning runs scored at 65.  Lighthouse have just 29.

Finally, some park effect data

Park                          AVG      HR/G    R/G
Sportsman's Park III (A)     0.304     2.1     11.3
Wrigley Field                0.289     1.9     11.1
Busch Stadium                0.296     1.4     10.7
Yankee Stadium               0.278     1.7     10.0
KC Municipal Stadium         0.269     1.7     9.9
Astrodome                    0.266     1.9     9.7
Three Rivers Stadium         0.283     1.4     9.6
Fenway Park                  0.273     1.9     9.4
Forbes Field                 0.285     1.1     9.4
PNC Park                     0.277     1.9     9.3
American League Polo Grounds 0.253     2.7     9.2
Briggs Stadium               0.268     2.2     9.0
County Stadium               0.259     1.6     9.0
Crosley Field                0.262     1.7     8.8
Candlestick Park             0.262     1.7     8.6
Griffith Stadium             0.246     1.6     8.6
Citizens Bank Park           0.256     1.8     8.2
Polo Grounds                 0.224     2.6     7.9
Cleveland Municipal Stadium  0.230     1.4     7.4
Ebbets Field                 0.228     1.7     7.1

 

 

12/11 - Week 5

 

The trend of two great division races and two lackluster blowouts continues through Week 5.  Pangea Tyrannosaurus Rex had a great chance to make up serious ground in the Joe McCarthy Division, as Lima de Equipo has dropped 8 of their last 12 games.  However, T-Rex struggled going just 5-8 to make up a measly 1/2 game on the division leaders.  The Homestead Grays had the best record in the division going 9-4 and pulling to within a game of second place, but still 9.5 games off the pace for a playoff spot.

 

The Grays Javy Lopez was in the running for Batter of the week, hitting 7 HR and driving in 20 during Week 5. Teammate Ricky Henderson was solid as well, batting .375 / .462 / .554 with 10 SB and leading the team with 14 runs scored.  The Grays pitching staff was anchored by Cy Young (3.42 ERA in 23.2 IP) and a Bruce Sutter, who had about as good of a week as possible for a closer:  9.1 IP, 0 R, 5 Saves.

 

Switching our attention to the Walter Alston Division where the DC Chips continue to dominate, increasing their division lead to 13 games.  The Chips have the best record in ATB X and maintain a pace of 117 "Power Alley" wins, almost 20 better than the next best team.  John McDonald Fanclub and Lake Superior Lighthouse both showed signs of life in Week 5, but barring a miracle have virtually no chance for the post season. 

 

The Chips offer a well balanced attack.  Starters Charley Radbourn, Toad Ramsey, and Joe Wood each still have ERA's under 3.00 while the pen has been the best in the game:

 

Closer:  2.64 ERA - Billy Wagner

R StUp:  2.76 ERA - Keith Foulke

L StUp:  1.47 ERA - Jesse Orosco

Lg Rlf:  3.16 ERA - Willie Hernandez

Lg Rlf:  2.56 ERA - Dan Quisenberry

Lg Rlf:  1.42 ERA - Lindy McDaniel

 

Combined, their pitching staff now has an ERA of 3.10, easily tops in all ATB.  Further, their offense has scored more runs than any other team as the experiment of Barry Bonds leading off appears to have paid off.  He is currently batting .347 / .510 / .690 with 24 HR, 71 R, and 52 RBI.  He's not alone though, Larry Walker (.285 / .359 / .515), Jesse Burkett (.396 / .463 / .495), and Howard Johnson (.294 / .336 / .502) have been among the best players at their respective positions.

 

Before getting to the close division races, here is a chart of each teams Starters and Relievers ERA's:

 

The closest and most exciting race of the young season is in the Connie Mack Division where the Cincinnati Venus Flytraps and Charleston Chews seemingly swap 1st and 2nd place each week.  The standings chart is worth reprinting here:

 

 

While the rest of the division struggles, these two powerhouse are slugging it out.  Combining to win 17 of 27 games during Week 5, the two teams ended the sim by splitting a close 2-game set in which both games where in doubt heading into the late innings.  Trying to predict the final outcome of the race is difficult, but the Chews may have an edge.  Their pitching staffs are fairly close in quality, yielding 251 and 249 runs, the meaningless edge going to the Flytraps.  However, on offense, thanks to a power laden lineup the Chews are on pace to outscore their rivals by 37 runs

 

Finally, back in the Earl Weaver division the Malkier Golden Cranes swept the Winterfell Direwolves in Sim 5C to take the division lead once again, albeit by a small 1/2 game margin.  Lurking closer and closer each week are the Staten Island Dumpers, who, after having the best Week 5 record in the Henry Chadwick League, are now just 4.5 games out.  In fact, all three teams had very good Sims and over the past month have played to a virtual standstill, though you can see how the Golden Cranes have given up some ground thanks to a struggling offense.

 

 

 

Fun With Names

Ever wonder where some of our owners came up with their team names?  My best guesses:

 

Absurdville Madness
Baltimore Black Sox
Birmingham Cloverleafs (or, maybe not)
Charleston Chews
Cincinnati Venus Flytraps
DC Chips
Flatbush Avenues
Harlem Rangers
Homestead Grays
John McDonald Fanclub
Lake Superior Lighthouse
Lima de Equipo
Lot O' Lefties
Malkier Golden Cranes
North Central Positronics
Otherton Fish Biscuits
Pangea Tyrannosaurus Rex
Planet 10
Staten Island Dumpers
Winterfell Direwolves

 

 

 

 

12/3 - Week 4

 

The race for the Earl Weaver Division tightened up during week 4, with the leading Malkier Golden Cranes dropping a game to the second place Winterfell Direwolves and a full 2.5 games to the third place Staten Island Dumpers.  The Dumpers had the best record in the division thanks to a strong showing from their bullpen.  Jim Poole, BJ Ryan, Rafael Soriano, Rheal Cormier, Mark Eichorn, and Tom Gordon combined for a 2.54 ERA over 32 innings of work.  On offense, the long anticipated return to form of Ted Williams finally occurred as the slugger batted .419 / .528 / .721 during his 50+ plate appearances.  The left fielder picked up half of his season total in home runs and raised his batting average 22 points during the Sim. 

 

Incredibly, this strong week from Williams wasn't enough to steal the Player of The Week award from Babe Ruth, who has now won for two consecutive weeks and three of the first four weeks to start the season.  Ruth continues his torrid pace and now has 37% more RBI than second place Willie Stargell, and 50% more home runs than second place Barry Bonds.

 

And speaking of Stargell, thanks to him, the last place Absurdville Madness swept the first place Golden Cranes.  Stargell was a one man wrecking crew, belting 5 HR and driving in 12 over the course of four game set.  On the season Stargell now has 11 HR and 24 RBI solely against Malkier.

 

While the DC Chips and Lima de Equipo continue to run away with their divisions, the Cincinnati Venus Flytraps and Charleston Chews carry on their battle in the Connie Mack Division.  After holding the division lead at the end of each of the last two Sims, the Chews struggled to stay above .500 this week, which opened the door for the 8-5 Flytraps to take a 1/2 game lead in the divisional race.  Of course, the Division Races are critical in ATB X as there is no wild card in this four division format.  The Flytraps won their games due to good Sims off the bats of Sam Thompson (batted .410 with 5 triples), Rafael Palmeiro ( 3 HR, 9 R, 10 RBI), and Mickey Mantle (3 HR, 9 R, 13 RBI).  Perhaps even more important to the teams Sim 4 success, relievers Trevor Hoffman, Tom Henke, and Tug McGraw yielded just 1 earned run over 18 2/3 innings.

 

One other team item to note this week, over the course of the last month the standings look fairly similar to where they are today:

 

 

 

 

 

Week 3

 

Fed up with early season rumors proclaiming Barry Bonds or perhaps even Pedro Martinez the rightful claimant to #1 overall draft pick, the "Sultan of Swat" Babe Ruth has been on a mission this year, capturing his second Player of the Week honors on the season.  His limit appears inexhaustible, as his current pace yields an incredible 79 HR and 202 RBI.  While this type of math isn't very constructive in predicting final seasons statistics, it's clear Ruth is putting up historical numbers never seen before in an ATB season.  It's true the park Lima de Equipo calls home is the 1930's answer to Coors Field, but owners have tried the same strategies in the past and Ruth has never been quite this good: 

 

.383 / .503 / .919, 1.422 OPS, 22 HR, 35 R, 56 RBI, 69.3 RC.

 

A quick look at the standings charts shows the impact he has had in the Joe McCarthy division.  de Equipo, neck in neck with the Homestead Grays heading into April, has pulled away and now owns a commanding 8 game lead.  Lima had the best record on the Sim at 11-3 and owns perhaps the best Starting 3 in the game considering where they play.  Cliff Melton is 4-1 with a 3.47 ERA; Mark Prior 2-0 with a 2.39 ERA; and the new de facto ace is the undefeated Andy Pettitte who has 5 wins and a 2.08 ERA.

 

A great race is brewing in the Earl Weaver Division where the Malkier Golden Cranes continue to no avail to try and put some space between themselves and the 2nd place team, the Winterfell Direwolves.  On paper the Cranes are the class of the division, owning the best Run Differential to go along with their 28-15 record, but still have just a 2-game lead over Winterfell.  One flaw in using Run Differential as a gauge for team quality is that it often understates the impact of a good bullpen, which the Direwolves clearly own.  After a less than stellar April, the pen has a combined line of 149 IP, 127 H, and a 2.94 ERA.  Teams in rest of the Division continue to struggle in putting together solid 10 game stretches.

 

The best race of the season to date is in the Connie Mack Division where the Charleston Chews battle the Cincinnati Venus Flytraps.  Separated by less than a game, both teams put up winning records in Week 3 thanks in part to solid starting pitching.  The best starter of the Sim among these two rivals was the Flytraps #1 starter Pete Alexander.  "Grover" went undefeated in 3 starts yielding just 4 runs in over 20 innings of work (1.77 ERA).  The Chews answered with Luis Tiant who held a 2.31 ERA during his two Sim 3 starts.

 

Finally, the slightest hint of a potential divisional race is surfacing in the Walter Alston Division.  After a solid 10-5 sim the Baltimore Black Sox are quietly making up some ground on the juggernaut DC Chips squad.  In fact, the two have identical 13-7 records during the month of May suggesting the division title is not sewn up just yet.

 

Head to Head

With no interleague play in ATB X, every day teams are pitted against league or divisional rivals increasing the importance of each game.  Since it is only mid-May the schedule has not evened itself out and several teams have taken advantage:

Fun Stats O' The Week

- The Staten Island Dumpers are batting .308 / .390 / .488 with 2-outs and runners in scoring position

- In the same situations, the Absurdville Madness are batting .173 / .268 / .324

 

- The Chews have 3 HR and 10 RBI in 0-2 counts.  They are batting .196 (19-97)

- The Cranes are 7 for 102, all singles.

 

- Tris Speaker (PTR) is batting .531 in "late and close situations"

- Willie Stargell (AM) is 1 for 28 (.036)

 

Checking in on the First Rounders

  • Some big names aren't living up to expectation - Randy Johnson, Addie Joss, Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson, and Tommy Bond

  • Mickey Mantle, Christy Mathewson, and Joe DiMaggio have some room for improvement

  • Pedro Martinez, Ted Williams, Rogers Hornsby, Honus Wagner, Jimmie Foxx, Willie McCovey, Lou Gehrig, and Arky Vaughan are right on target.

  • Barry Bonds, Greg Maddux, and Tip O'Neil are performing a bit above expectations.

  • Babe Ruth, well, see below

Hit Chart

We'll end with Babe Ruth's hit chart on the season, and that's a lot of pink:

 

 

 

Week 2

=

 

The biggest story coming out of the close of Week 2 is the surge of the Charleston Chews.  While they did not have the best record of the sim, that honor once again goes to the DC Chips, the Chews are the only new division leader.  At 10-4, the Chews overtook the Cincinnati Venus Flytraps who played under .500 over the past 15 days.  The Chews offense was led by Rico Petrocelli who batted .302 / .412 / .581 with 10 RBI. Mark McGwire added 5 HR and 9 RBI to the mix as well.  Their rotation was stellar in week 2:

 

Luis Tiant:  12 IP, 0.75 ERA

Spud Chandler:  15.2 IP, 2.30 ERA

John Tudor:  20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA

 

And Rollie Fingers added 15 innings of 3-run ball out of the pen.

 

Elsewhere in the Alexander Cartwright League, the Chips continue to roll putting up an 11-2 record, the second sim in a row with they've turned in the best winning percentage.  Given their record and run differential, the Power Alley calculations have them on pace for an incredible 133 wins.

 

The Malkier Golden Cranes are the talk of the Henry Chadwick League.  With an 11-3 record they took a commanding lead of the Earl Weaver division, leading by 4 games over the Winterfell Direwolves.  The Direwolves themselves are not deserving of a .500 record as they have been outscored by over 20 runs on the season.  During sim 2 the Cranes had a team ERA of 2.73 and scored over 4 1/2 runs per game.

 

Around the League

In a sim or two I'll complete a full rundown of the best and worst draft picks, but scanning through the list of good pitchers and batters a few names caught my eye:

 

- 7th Rd: Al Rosen, .380 / .427 / .670

- 8th Rd: Howard Johnson,  .295 / .361 / .500

- 14th Rd: Frank Howard,  Tied for 14th in the league with 20 RBI

- 15th Rd: Eddie Stanky, .381 OBP

- 19th Rd: Toad Ramsey, 1.71 ERA, 3-0

- 22nd Rd: Bobby Shantz, 2.27 ERA, 4-0

- 23rd Rd: Latroy Hawkins, 0.56 ERA

- 28th Rd: Jose Rijo, 1.93 ERA

 

Finally, the Standings Charts are now operational.  Give them a glance, well worth it in my opinion as they give a broader view of how each team is fairing as the season progresses.

 

Week 1 Complete – New Guy Sets the Bar

 

 

In so far as any mid-April story is important, the quick rise of the DC Chips as the potential team to beat is the talk of league during the early goings of ATB X.  They currently stand atop the Walter Alston Division with a 12-3 record and the best run differential in the game.  Behind an uncommon batting order which features Barry Bonds at the top of the lineup, the Chips are second in the league in scoring behind only Lima de Equipo which plays its home games in a severe batters park.  Bonds (.345 / .515 / .691, 5 HR) isn’t the only offensive star of the first week for the team either.  Jesse Burkett is batting over .400, Howard Johnson is slugging .520, and Larry Walker has a solid .867 OPS.

 

While the successes of these three might have been predictable, no one could rightly surmise the Chips pitching staff would be this good.  Starter Toad Ramsey is undefeated in three starts with an ERA of 1.00.  Joe Wood and Charley Radbourn have been almost as good:  22 IP, 11 H, 18 K, 1.69 ERA for the frogman and 20 IP, 14 H, 10 K, 2.25 for “Old Hoss”.  The bullpen has been spectacular – Jesse Orosco, Lindy McDaniel, Stu Miller, and Al Hrabosky have pitched over 19 scoreless innings between them. 

 

The balance of the Alexander Cartwright League is in a state of flux.  On one hand the Cincinnati Venus Flytraps are 9-6 atop the Connie Mack Division, but they’ve been outscored on the year.  In truth, only two teams in the entire league have outscored their opponents by a wide margin, the aforementioned Chips and the defense minded John McDonald Fanclub.

 

Over in the Henry Chadwick League, three teams have performed better than the rest.  de Equipo, aptly named for their use of the fantasy famous L.I.M.A. plan, have scored 94 runs behind Babe Ruth.  It’s folly to talk about ‘pace’ stats in mid April, but it is worth noting that Ruth is currently on pace for 105 HR, 162 R, and 289 RBI.  As a team, de Equipo is batting .332 / .387 / .533.

 

Two teams in the Earl Weaver Division are deserve mention as well.  While their records are not indicative of their underlying skills, the Malkier Golden Cranes and Staten Island Dumpers are the only two teams in the division to score more than a handful of runs then they’ve let up.  In the case of the Cranes, their so-so record of 8-6 rests entirely with the fault of the defense, which has recorded an astounding 23 errors in 14 games.  Joe Torre and Jeff Bagwell are the worst culprits with 6 and 5 errors respectively.

 

There is plenty of ball left to play and don’t lose heart if your team isn’t performing as well as you’d hoped. 

 

For the newcomers, a bit about the weekly reports.  Below this write-up are four sections, some words on each:

  • The Good, The Great, and The Ugly – The best and worst players in the game on the year.

  • Batters and Pitchers of the Week – Self explanatory, I hope.

  • Power Alley – My unofficial rankings of each team.  The rankings are based upon a weighting of each teams current record and Pythagorean Record, the latter of which predicts overall records based upon a teams existing Runs Scored and Runs Let up.

  • To p Players – Position by position ranking of the best offensive players in the game.

Also, over on the left hand menu are some additional reports.

  • League Reports – I am sure everyone has used these, but if not it’s where you access all the league and team data.

  • Great Individual Feats – A record of each player that recorded at least 5 Hits, 5 Runs, 6 RBI, 3 Doubles, 3 Home Runs, 4 Stolen Bases, 85+ Game Score, or 12 Strikeouts in a single game.  Also listed are players that hit for the Cycle, some hitting streak data, and two team level feats – 16 inning games and 16 run games.

  • RSAA Leaders – Runs Scored Against Average Leaders.  A listing of all pitchers by this stat, which takes into consideration how much better or worse a players statistics are versus the league average.  Lee Sinins devised this; I twisted it to use Runs Created ERA instead of standard ERA.

  • AOPSAP Leaders – Average OPS Above Position Leaders.  Similar to RSAA but for batters, a listing of players by how much better their OPS is versus the league average at the position.

  • Standings Charts – Nifty graphs of each teams W-L record, but I’ll start posting that after Sim 2 or Sim 3.

Oh, and if you’re still with me, check out this game between the Dumpers and the Otherton Fish Biscuits.  Three players recorded 5-hits. 

 

 

11-09-08:  Opening Weekend Results

This space is normally updated after the full slate of games, but opening day deserves it's one space.  Some of the stars of day 1:

  • Cliff Melton (LdE) outduels Christy Mathewson going 7 innings and yielding just 1 run.  7 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4K.

  • Johnny Mize (HR) smacks 2 HR's and drives in 5 in a rout of the Venus Fly Traps.

  • Teammate Walter Johnson (HR) easily defeats Pete Alexander in a complete game, 1 earned run victory.

  • A rain delay cost the Golden Cranes the game as Pedro Martinez wasn't allowed back.  His replacement, Dizzy Dean gave up 5 Hits and 2 Runs in his 4 innings of work, plenty for Greg Maddux (PTR) (7 IP, 5 H, 0 R) to work with.

  • Al Orth (SID) pitches 8 strong innings and Willie McCovey doubles twice and drives in 3.

  • Hal Newhouser (HG) pitches a 5 hit, complete game shutout of Absurdville.  Javey Lopes hits 2 HR and drives in 6.

  • Cy Blanton (JMF) also pitches a 5 hit complete game shutout, this time against the Cloverleafs. 

  • Joe D and Rico Petrocelli of the Charleston Chews each homer and drive in 4.

 

11-07-08 – OPENING WEEKEND

"I have seen (John) McGraw go onto ball fields where he is as welcome as a man with the black smallpox. I have seen him take all sorts of personal changes. He doesn't know what fear is." - Christy Mathewson

 

"(Frank) Baker used a bat antiquated even in his time. The handle was almost the size of the barrel. It was short, but almost like a piece of lead because it weighed over fifty ounces. There was no flex. It really was a wagon tongue." - Hillerich & Bradsby

 

"Let's play two." - Ernie Banks

 

Finally, it’s time.  After a grueling 3-week draft that covered 600 picks by an ATB record 20 owners, opening day is upon us.  The Baseball Gods are with us to start the 10th season of ATB as well.  The first game matchups are both out of the lore of yesteryear, and the lore of future generations to come.

 

The Cartwright League starts us off with a classic confrontation between two of the deadball era’s greatest – “The Big Train” Walter Johnson and “The Christian Gentleman” Christy Mathewson.  Between the Hall Of Famers, 67 teams recorded a loss against them by scoring, on average, just 1.18 earned runs per game, a figure so low it forces one to pause and consult the record books.

 

The Chadwick League counters with a confrontation future generations will soon drool over – Greg Maddux vs. Pedro Martinez, arguably the two most un-hittable pitchers we’ve seen in 50 years.  In 1995 the Mad Dog allowed only 6.3 hits for every nine innings pitched and won over 90% of his games.  Facing him is Pedro Martinez, owner of the single most prolific pitching season in the history of the sport – 217 IP, 128 H, 284 K’s

 

Other matchups intrigue the mind as well.   Who’ll take the battle of current era lefty stars – Randy Johnson or Johan Santana?  Or the encounter of the 19th century – Tommy Bond vs. Old Hoss Radbourn?  Perhaps one might look upon a game where seemingly no two release points are the same, which is what you’ll find when David Cone faces off against Luis Tiant. And finally, how many bats will be missed when Sandy Koufax and Curt Schilling, who struck out 633 batters between them, take the mound against each other on Sunday?

 

The lineups are in and the fields are being lined.  Good luck!

 

Opening Day matchups around the league:

 

Henry Chadwick League

Flatbush Avenues @ Lima de Equipo

Matt B vs. Brad P

Christy Mathewson (37-11, 1.43) vs. Cliff Melton (20-9, 2.61)

 

Homestead Grays @ Absurdville Madness

Steve G vs. Matt/Tim

Hal Newhouser (26-9, 1.94) vs. Addie Joss (14-10, 1.59)

 

Pangea Tyrannosaurus Rex’s @ Malkirie Golden Cranes

Justin P vs. Mike S

Greg Maddux (19-2, 1.63) vs. Pedro Martinez (18-6, 1.74)

 

Otherton Fish Biscuits @ Staten Island Dumpers

Brian B vs. Sean S

Sam McDowell (17-11, 2.18) vs. Al Orth (20-12, 2.27)

 

North Central Positronics @ Winterfell Direwolves

TJ vs. Lou

Randy Johnson (17-9, 2.48) vs. Johan Santana (20-6, 2.61)

 

 

Alexander Cartwright League

Planet 10 @ Lot O’ Lefties

Ivar vs. Jim N

Curt Schilling (23-7, 3.23) vs. Sandy Koufax(27-9, 1.73)

 

Harlem Rangers @ Cincinnati Venus Fly Traps

Jeff B vs. Kevin C

Walter Johnson (36-7, 1.14) vs. Pete Alexander (31-10, 1.22)

 

Charleston Chews @ Baltimore Black Sox

Mike R vs. Mike/Zach

Luis Tiant (21-9, 1.60) vs. David Cone (16-5, 2.94)

 

John McDonald Fanclub @ Birmingham Cloverleaf's

Jason B vs. Joe T

Roger Clemens (21-7, 2.05) vs. Mort Cooper (22-7, 1.78)

 

DC Chips @ Lake Superior Lighthouse

Steve C vs. Greg S

Charley Radbourn (59-12, 1.38) vs. Silver King (45-21, 1.64)

 

 

Battle O' the Divisions

More Sim data!  Made fake teams comprised of the best players of each division.  "Best" is determined by draft order, which may not actually be the best but is the only fair way I could think of to make sure each team at least had some representation.  These 4 teams played a 15 game 'season'.  The Results:

 

10-5:  Walter Alston

8-7:   Earl Weaver

7-8:   Joe McCarthy

5-10:  Connie Mack

 

The lineups and rotations

Alston

Mack

McCarthy

Weaver

 

Great Lines

Willie McCovey, Sean:  .455 / .529 / .977, 7 HR, 12 R, 13 RBI

Harry Heilmann, Joe T: .500 / .541 / .588

Babe Ruth, Brad P:     .231 / .412 / .654, 7 HR, 10 R, 12 RBI

Ted Williams, Sean S:  .377 / .451 / .557, 3 HR, 14 R, 16 RBI

 

Walter Johnson, Jeff B:  1-1, 0.49 ERA, 18 IP, 11 H,  5 BB,  8 K

Addie Joss, Matt/Tim:    2-1, 2.05 ERA, 22 IP, 12 H,  7 BB, 11 K

Pedro Martinez, Mike S:  0-1, 2.12 ERA, 17 IP,  8 H,  1 BB, 16 K

Teddy Higuera, TJ O:     2-0, 2.80 ERA, 19 IP, 13 H, 11 BB,  9 K

Eric Gagne, Matt/Tim:    0-0, 0.00 ERA, 6 IP,   3 H,  6 BB,  6 K, 3 Sv

 

Full Team Batting Report

Full Team Pitching Report

 

 

Barnstorming Bonanza

Fed-up with the prospects of the planned break in the action the owners saw fit to grant themselves this weekend, several stars of the early rounds of the ATB Draft formed a loose, temporary alliance designed to get them onto to the diamond before the season starts.  More importantly, it also sent a message to the owners that the players will do anything to get the seasons started - even if it risks injury barnstorming in exhibition games up and down the east coast.

 

(just kidding, no injuries)

 

Nine games were played in a round robin style schedule between Mays' Marauders, Walter's Big Trains, and Ruth's "Murderer's Row Relived".  All players selected through Rd 4 pick #6 were tossed back into a fictitious player pool and re-drafted from scratch by a mysterious man calling himself PC.  Recent reports are that it is not Phil Cavarretta as originally reported.

 

In all, 9 games were played:

 

Game 1 - The Big Trains score six in the 8th in a come from behind 8-4 victory over Mays' Marauders.  Johnson himself was solid pitching 9 innings and giving up 6 hits and 4 runs.  Arky Vaughan and Ted Williams homerd for the victors.

 

Game 2 - Mays' Marauders came out on top in game 2, besting Walter's Big Trains 9-4.  They pounded out 15 hits with Stan Musial and George Brett collecting 3 apiece.  Tommy Bond was blitzed allowing 7 hits and 6 runs, recording just 6 outs.

 

Game 3 - The Big Trains come out on top in hard fought battle over the Marauders, winning 5-4.  Down by two heading into the top of the 9th, the Marauders plated two with an Oscar Charleston triple and Stan Musial single.  "Matty" couldn't hold the Big Trains at bay in the bottom half of the inning.  Small ball won out - A double by Joe Jackson, an intentional walk to pinch hitter Dan Brouthers, an Arky Vaughan sac bunt, all ending with a Johnny Bench fielders choice to win.

 

Game 4 - An all time great pitchers match-up didn't disappoint.  Pedro Martinez gives up just 3 hits in 8 innings, striking out 11 but the one run he gave up was the difference maker.  Pete Alexander gave up no runs and just one hit through 7, while Christy Mathewson and Randy Johnson finished out the game unscathed.

 

Game 5 - Both starters, Greg Maddux and Al Orth, were bounced out early as Mays' Marauders top Murderer's Row Relived 9-6.  Bill Dickey, George Brett, and Oscar Charleston had 2-RBI nights while Honus Wagner went 3-4 with 2 doubles.

 

Game 6 - The Marauders win again, this time Bill Dickey did most of the damage going 3-4 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI.  Lefty Grove got the job done lasting 6 innings and yielding 3 runs.

 

Game 7 - Pedro Martinez struggled a bit, but held the Big Trains in check giving up just one run in 4 2/3 innings.  Nap Lajoie smacks 3-hits, and he and Tris Speaker plate 2 a piece in the 7-3 Murder's Row Relived victory.

 

Game 8 - Sandy Koufax was all guts with no stuff today, giving up 13 hits and six runs over 7 2/3 innings, but recorded the victory anyway.  Murderer's Row Relived was led by Josh Gibson who went 4-4 with 2 runs, 2 RBI, and a HR.  For the losing Big Trains, Dan Brouthers had 3 hits and Joe Jackson 3 RBI.

 

Game 9 - The Big Trains win the last barnstorming game 8-4 over Murderer's Row.  Jim Whitney picks up the win giving up just 2-earned runs over 7+ innings while Arky Vaughan, Tip O'Neill, John McGraw, and Johnny Bench each have 2-RBI games.

 

Final Records:

4-2:  Mays' Marauders

3-3:  Walters Big Trains

2-4:  Murderer's Row

 

Great Batters

Nap Lajoie:       .458 / .500 / .917

King Kelly:       .333 / .481 / .667

John McGraw:      .389 / .421 / .722

George Brett:     .368 / .391 / .737

Oscar Charleston: .375 / .400 / .708

 

Great Pitchers

Jim Whitney:    15.0 IP, 13 H, 2.40 ERA

Pete Alexander: 14.2 IP,  7 H, 1.23 ERA

Pedro Martinez: 13.1 IP,  7 H, 0.67 ERA

 

MOCK DRAFT RESULTS

 

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