05/28 - Week 1

05/19 - Probable Starters - Opening Day

05/11 - Pre-Season:  To 1880s or Not to 1800s?

05/05 - Pre-Season:  To 1880s or Not to 1800s?

Week 1

Little value can be gleamed during the first 15 games of the season.  Sure the 10+ win starts out of Windy City, Potomac, Willets Point, and I Miss Rod Beck are excellent stepping stones, and each of us would rather have 10 wins than 10 losses, but every last one of the 24 teams of ATB XI will have a two week stretch of approximately the same number of wins.  

Even generalizations can be hazardous to prognosticators.    Six teams – Bellevue, Bucky Dent’s, Chi-Town, Duke Street, John McDonald, and Potomac – have reached 80 runs scored, and only five have yet to give up 50 – Windy City, I Miss Rod Beck, Rusty Kuntz, and White Meadow Lake.  It is not a stretch to predict that 60% of these teams to be outside the Top-5 in Runs Scored or Runs Against at the ends of the season.

While it may not be any more fruitful, it might just be more entertaining to focus on some individual player success and failures during Sim 1.

No Surprises Here

• Batters:  Mickey Mantle (DSK), Barry Bonds (RKA), and Stan Musial (HH).   Each of these players currently sports an OPS of 1.000 or better, and each are perennial powerhouses in each and every ATB season.   Mantle, in particular, has been great – a 1.129 OPS with “Very Good” defense in a tough position to find offense.

• Pitchers:  Pedro Martinez (WTP), Greg Maddux (P10).  Shocking, a 0.70 RCERA and 2.18 RCERA respectively.

Whoops, I drafted a new guy high and…

• Fred Dunlap (WMP, Rd 1) – Dunlap is batting .226 with no power, a far cry from his .412 / .447 / .621 real life line.

• Charlie Sweeney (HeH, Rd 2) – The ace is winless in three starts, walking 14 in 12 innings while giving up 9 runs (6.00 ERA)

• In fairness to both, do to extenuating circumstances, neither owner was available ‘live’ on the first day.

So Glad I Didn’t Pull the Plug

• Albert Pujols (HH) – Actively on the trading block for much of the first and second days of the draft, Pujols is making Joe Terry proud.  It’s a new year for the first basemen as 2008 has never been used.  So far so good:  .386 / .462 / .684 with 5 doubles an 4 homers.

Some Random Players Not Accustomed to the Spotlight

• Willie Mays (BDM) - 1.126 OPS, 10 HR.  The fall is coming, and maybe fast – he has a .306 OBP.  Mays batted .236 last year, though, he did smack 37 HR’s.

• Luis Gonzalez (BFF) - .319 / .418 / .638.  Recorded a sub.-300 on base percentage in ATB X.

• Bob Feller (WT) – By RSAA, the 3^rd worst pitcher in ATB last season, Feller is currently 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA and a .195 opponents batting average.

• Ferguson Jenkins (WPP) – By RSAA, the absolute worst pitcher in ATB last season (6.61 RCERA) had a year change and now has a 1.69 ERA with 2 BB and 17 K over the course of 21 innings pitched.

Wait, is He for Real?

• Howard Johnson:  New to ATB last year, Johnson hit 31 HR, drove in 123 runners, and was one of the leaders on the World Champion DC Chips squad.  The Mechanics took him very early in this years draft, Round 4, and so far it has paid off.  He’s batting .393 with a .607 slugging percentage.  Johnson doesn’t look good on paper, at least compared to league average, but DMB seems to love him.

 Look Out!  Biggest differences between RCERA and Actual ERA

• In a Bad Way –Satchel Paige (WTP).  5.13 RCERA vs. 2.75 ERA.   Something has to give, either the ERA or the 1.47 WHIP

• In a Good Way – Christy Mathewson (IMR).  Poor guy has a 4.62 ERA despite this line:  25.1 IP, 20 H, 25 K, 1.03 WHIP

Housekeeping

With so many new faces, thought I would take the time to go over what’s published each week as part of the write-up:

Upper Left Hand Reports Bar

• Great Individual Feats – I have a handy add-on report tool that allows me to quickly query the box scores and identify stellar performances.  Each performance is listed.

• RSAA Leaders – Runs Saved Against Average for pitchers.  Rank of Starters, Closers, and Relievers based upon their Runs Created ERA and number of innings pitched.

• AOPSAP Leaders – Adjusted OPS Against Position for batters.  Takes an OBP heavy version of OPS, and compares the players result versus the average AOPS at each position.

• Standings Charts – Great graphs that track each division’s standings across the full 162 game season.

Below the Weekly Write-up Section

• The Good, The Great, and the Ugly – The selection of the games greatest and worst players, year to date.

• Batters and Pitchers of the Week – Self Explanatory

• Power Alley – Rank of each team from best to worst.  Rankings are 100% analytical, calculated using each teams actual record and predicted record based upon Runs Scored and Runs Against.

• Top Players By Position – Simply picking the best players at each position off of the RSAA and AOPSAP reports

• Box Scores of the Greatest Events – Picking and linking the most interesting Box Scores off of the “Great Individual Feats” reports

Probable Starters - Opening Day

The ATB XI season embarks with a full slate of games pitting only division rivals against each other, and for the first time ever opening day features a lengthy twelve game set.  With 24 teams across six divisions, there's a need for no less than 110 starting pitchers, stretching even an all time greats league thin on classic confrontations. 

Derek Lowe?  Jack Stivetts?  Mort Cooper?  Each of these #1 starters carry the hopes and dreams of their franchises in their not-so-famous throwing arms, perhaps putting themselves under more pressure than their renowned counterparts.  Stivetts for instance, was the 300th overall pick of the draft, making him the 13th player drafted by John McDonald Fanclub, a conscious move by the team that carries with it and incredible amount of risk.

At the other end of the spectrum is Pedro Martinez, yet again the first pitcher taken in an ATB Draft, and with good cause.  Martinez is arguably the greatest ATB pitcher of all time, outperforming each of his peers almost routinely.  Countering Martinez, is none other than Sandy Koufax - owner of several of the Top-5 "real life" pitching seasons in the history of the sport.  A true classic confrontation:

Martinez - 18-6, 1.74 ERA, 5.3 H/9, 11.8 K/9, 217 IP, 128 H, 284 K

Koufax   - 27-9, 1.73 ERA, 6.7 H/9,  8.8 K/9, 323 IP, 241 H, 317 K

Another match-up jumps off the lineup card as well:

Bob Gibson       - 22-9,  1.12 ERA, 5.8 H/9, 7.9 K/9, 305 IP, 198 H, 268 K

Christy Mathewson - 37-11, 1.43 ERA, 6.6 H/9, 6.0 K/9, 390 IP, 285 H, 259 K

"Hoot" was one of the fiercest competitors of his day, prompting Hank Aaron to once give this advice to Dusty Baker:

"'Don't dig in against Bob Gibson, he'll knock you down. He'd knock down his own grandmother if she dared to challenge him. Don't stare at him, don't smile at him, don't talk to him. He doesn't like it. If you happen to hit a home run, don't run too slow, don't run too fast. If you happen to want to celebrate, get in the tunnel first. And if he hits you, don't charge the mound, because he's a Gold Glove boxer.'

Many believe the "Christian Gentleman" was the exact opposite.  Mathewson had a reputation for clean living and good sportsmanship, all while playing the part of the strong, silent American Hero.  This likely wasn't true however, as many had issues or encounters with his incredible ego.  Matty made the screwball famous (he called it the fadeaway), even though he used it less than 10% of the time.

Each game brings with it an air of mystery for ATB owners.  No one truly knows how well 'their guys" will perform and for the first time in a long time, thanks to 120 new player-seasons to choose from, even the long time ATB'ers maybe in for some surprises.

The full list of opening day probable starters:

Harry Caray - It Might Be

• Justin P @ Windy City:   Jesse Tannehill (20-6,  1.95, 1902) vs. Babe Adams      (17-10, 1.98, 1919)

• Edinburgh @ Planet:      Ron Guidry      (25-3,  1.78, 1978) vs. Greg Maddux     (19-2,  1.63, 1995)

• Potomac @ HI:            Dazzy Vance     (17-15, 2.61, 1930) vs. Charlie Sweeney (41-15, 1.70, 1884)

Harry Caray - It Could Be

• Willis Pt @ Cincinnati:  Hang Aguirre (16-8,  2.21, 1962) vs. Cy Blanton     (18-13, 2.58, 1935)

• Duke Street @ Wedge:     Mort Cooper  (22-7,  1.78, 1942) vs. Tom Seaver     (25-7,  2.21, 1969)

• Bellevue P @ Old Pete's: Toad Ramsey  (38-27, 2.45, 1886) vs. Pete Alexander (31-10, 1.22, 1915)

Vin Scully - Behind The Bag

• John McDonald @ DC:        Jack Stivetts  (12-7,  2.25, 1889) vs. Guy Hecker    (52-20, 1.80, 1884)

• Warning Track @ Leanne S:  Pedro Martinez (18-6,  1.74, 2000) vs. Sandy Koufax  (27-9,  1.73, 1966)

• Rusty Kuntz @ Otherton:    Cy Young       (33-10, 1.62, 1901) vs. Randy Johnson (17-9,  2.48, 1999)

Vin Scully - Gets by Buckner

• Sure Shots @ Chi-Town:  Bill Bernhard     (18-5,  2.15, 1902) vs. Walter Johnson (36-7, 1.14, 1913)

• Donwsouth @ Hellena:    Whitey Ford       (25-4,  3.21, 1961) vs. Derek Lowe     (21-8, 2.58, 2002)

• I Miss @ Bucky Dent:    Christy Mathewson (37-11, 1.43, 1908) vs. Bob Gibson     (22-9, 1.12, 1968)

Pre-Season:  To 1880s or Not to 1800s?

Two seasons ago, ATB opened it's doors the forgotten faithful of the 19th century.  During ATB IX Draft, the Manetheren Red Eagles gambled and selected the first 1800s player in our new ATB format - choosing the unproven plodding outfielder Tip O'Neill in the 4th round.  O'neill was an instant star batting .385 / .436 / .545 and figured in the MVP award.  A year later, this time with the Winterfell Direwolves and in the heralded 1st Round, O'neill was selected once again and batted .369 / .424 / .497.  His OPS scores are the Top-2 among all 1800s campaigns.

A round later back in ATB IX, "Babe & Babe" chose the 1886 version of Tim Keefe, only to be shackled with a losing record and 5.38 ERA.  And in ATB X Keefe started just one.  Similar stories where prevalent throughout the league in both the IX an X seasons.  For every success story, there were one, if not two, major disappointments.

Across both seasons, the average pitcher ERA for 19th century players was 4.43, with eight of the 13 pitchers that tossed 150 innings failing to keep the ERA below 4.00.  Only one pitcher, Guy Hecker of the Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs of ATB IX, had an ERA under 3.50.  Hecker's ERA was wonderful - 3.12, but a year later with Planet 10 it stood at 4.87.

For batters, the average OPS score over the past two seasons is .750.  If we take O'neill out of the mix, it's .734.  However, a closer look reveals several goldmines - 1899 John McGraw had an incredible .490 OBP in ATB IX; Sam Thompson slugged .535 last year; King Kelly has now emerged as a Top-3 catcher; and thanks to his uncanny ability uncanny ability to get plunked by a pitch (102 in two seasons!) and his superb defense, Hughie Jennings has a legitimate claim to the best shortstop in ATB.

What now?  Prior to this season, rules confined 1800s selections to just 77 player seasons.  The upcoming season of ATB opens the door for an additional 2,300.  There are certainly more Tip O'Neill's and Guy Hecker's - it's just a matter of knowing when to take the gamble.

ATB XI Database Updates

1. Removed odd ball ground ball, balk, and wild pitch rates.  These were prevalent within the 1800s and negro league player sets.  Every other player defaults to league average, and now these two player sets do as well.

2. Recalculated starter pitcher fatigue ratings.  They were a mess.  Now we follow hard and fast rules for starting pitchers (>20 real life starts):

   • Ex rating when at least 90% of starts are CG

   • Vg rating when 80-89% of starts are CG

   • For the rest of the players who don't fall into one of these two categories

     • Ex if CG% is 25% better than league average

     • Vg if CG% is 11 to 24% better than league average

     • Av if CG% is +/- 10% of league average

     • Fr if CG% is -11 to -24% of league average

     • Pr if CG% is -25% or worse than league average

   • These unfortunately are not infallible, but the best I can do without more data for some of the seasons prior to the 1950s.  Pitch data isn't available for a better determination - but at least all pitchers are now on a level playing field.

   • Two of the best pitchers in the game just get better, Pedro Martinez improves his fatigue rating from Av to Vg; Greg Maddux goes from Av to Ex!

3. Removing reliever ratings for starting pitchers.  The game engine will automatically create relief pitcher fatigue ratings based upon the starter fatigue ratings.

4. As mentioned, I am opening up the league to 1800s players.  I have gone through the batters and posted a new Eligible Batter File here.

5. Updated positional eligibility for players already housed in database.  Over the years, the positional eligibility rules have changed, but I never took the time to correct existing players who were entered under old rules.  These have all been updated.  The new ratings file can be found here.

6. Last seasons (ATB X) batting and pitching registers have been posted here and here.

7. Eligible pitcher file completed.