ATB X Playoffs - World Series

Lima de Equipo opened the series with one basic plan in mind - put the outcome of each game in the hands of Babe Ruth and let him rip. With much help from starter Dolph Luque, Ruth did exactly what was required in game 1, hitting the most important Home Run of the game, one that gave his de Equipo squad a 6-1 lead heading out of the second inning.

Earlier in the first, it was a textbook opening inning for the visitors aw well. Lead off speedster Billy Hamilton grounded a slow roller up the middle and beat out the throw from second basemen Eddie Collins. Hamilton promptly stole second and two outs and a walk later, scored when Hugh Duffy grounded a single between third and short. Next, Bill Terry singled and catcher Brian McCann drilled the ball down the third base line for a double, driving in the 3rd Lima runner of the inning.

The two crooked scores in the 1st and 2nd gave Lima a 6-1 cushion that DC never recovered from. Luque scattered 8 hits and 4 walks but never got into serious trouble, and ended with a complete game win.

Game 2 @ DC: DC wins 6-1

In a much closer game than the score indicates, the DC Chips squared the series in a hard fought 6-1 victory. Starting pitcher Toad Ramsey was masterful, allowing only allowing 4 hits and a run (though he did walk 5) over 8 innings, before giving way to Dan Quisenberry to pitch the final frame.

After three scoreless innings, Lima's shortstop Cal Ripken hit a 1-out solo shot of off Ramsey in the top of the 4th. The DC faithful were visibly restless at this point, having to face the prospects of a potential 2-0 series whole as their beloved Chips went on the road for the next three games.

Over the last five innings sixteen of the last eighteen Chips batters failed to reach first base. Second basemen Eddie Collins led off the sixth with a single and one out later after a fielders choice and another single, the Chips had their first runner in scoring position with men on the corners. Ron Santo then hit a well hit shot to third, and Barry Bonds was caught trying to come home. To the dismay of many, the Chips squandered their one opportunity in the game thus far.

Presently however, the game changed. Oscar Charleston would have none of it and drilled a 2-2 fastball down the right field line, tying the game at 1-1. Howard Johnson followed with another single scoring Santo, and Charleston, quickly noticing that the center fielder Hugh Duffy misplayed the ball, scored as well giving DC their first lead of the series 3-1.

The Chips scored 3 more runs over the next two innings, capped off by a Darrell Evans 2-run HR in the 8th. After the 4th, the Lima batters were quiet mustering just two singles that were later erased by ground ball double plays, one off the bat of Babe Ruth. Luque struck out the side in the 8th, reaching 4 consecutive punch outs in a row.

The series now heads to Lima for Games 3 and 4.

Game 3 @ Lima: DC Wins 7-2

Where to begin. This game had it all, almost literally. Great pitching? Check - regular season #5 starter Mark Prior lasts 7 innings, striking out 8 and giving up no runs. Shut down bullpen? Check - closer Billy Wagner follows a gritty performance by Keith Foulke with 7 K over the last four innings of the game, giving up, of course, no runs. Gutsy bench play? Check - starting center fielder Oscar Charleston goes down with a leg injury only to have pinch runner Eric Davis score two runs, hit a game changing home run, and drive in 3. Exciting 9th inning comeback off of elite closer? Check. New ATB star Howard Johnson (36 HR, 101 RBI) hit 2-2 offering off of Dennis Eckersley for 2-run game tying home run. To cap it all off off, rumor has it Johnson promised this very act to a young terminally ill girl in the local Lima Hospital.

Lima got on the board first when Brian McCann hit a 2-run homer off of starter Joe Wood in the 2nd. It was the only blemish on Woods fine performance - 8 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 3 K. The contest remained scoreless for the next six frames with the only legitimate threat, a 2-out Johnson triple, nullified after Prior made Roy Campanella look rather silly.

After the 9th inning fireworks, the two teams would remain scoreless for another six innings until a winded Carlos Marmol got into trouble in the 16th. After giving up a single to back up catcher Bill Freehan, Marmol grooved one to Pop Lloyd who ripped it right at the shortstop for the second out. Lima had no choice but to stick with the tired reliever, who issued Barry Bonds his 4th walk of the game putting runners on 1st and 2nd with 2-outs before giving way to help in the form of Jeff Montgomery. Jesse Burkett followed with a line single to shallow right, scoring Freehan; Bonds was plated as well after a Dwight Evans misplayed the ball, allowing it to get past him and roll all the way wall. Larry Walker was then intentionally walked setting the stage for Eric Davis's 3-run homer that capped the 5-run outburst.

With 2-1 series lead and their opponent forced to starter a reliever in game 4 DC was in good place.

Game 4 @ Lima: Lima wins 6-1

Down half of their would be 4 man playoff rotation, the self named "team" hailing from Ron Shandler's mind simply wouldn't give an inch to a team many believed to be the best in ATB history. #1 starter Andy Pettitte is out for the season. Ditto with #4 Cliff Melton. Both of these starters went down with crippling injuries during these very playoffs, forcing owner Brad Peterson's hand to bypass several other starters in his rotation and twice start middle relievers in the past 10 days. Today, down 2 games to 1 after a heart wrenching 16 inning loss, Rob Murphy picked his team up by pitching into the 5th inning and giving up just 1 run. Murphy lasted 70 pitches and got through the DC lineup twice before giving way to a bullpen that held the Chips in check for the remaining 4+ innings in Game 4 of the ATB X World Series.

The improbable winners of the Joe McCarthy division (you wait and see how improbable) have now knotted the series at 2 games a piece and will likely turn the pivotal game 5 over to their #2 starter, Dolf Luque who pitched Lima to a complete game opening night win. If asked before the series, Peterson would undoubtedly have signed up for a game 5 match-up to take the series lead with his best starter left.

Murphy wasn't the only hero of Game 4. While Babe Ruth hit the longest shot of the night, a towering 477 ft blast to deep right center, catcher Brian McCann hit 2-run home runs in the 6th and 8th innings to break what was a close game, wide open. He's now batting .333 with 3 HR and 7 RBI in four games.

LIma now leaves the friendly confines of Sportsman's Park after game 5, and following a day off, the back end of the series moves to DC for Game 6 and a potential Game 7.

Game 5 @ Lima: DC Wins 9-5

After 4 exciting games the ATB X World Series delivers a stinker. Starters Charlie Radbourn and Dolf Luque were both knocked around and neither lasted in to the 7th inning. Combined, they yielded 15 hits, 5 walks, and 11 runs in 9 2/3 innings of 'work' and when the dust settled the DC Chips won the decisive Game 5 in somewhat of a laugher, 9-5.

With an early 3-2 lead the DC offense exploded for 5-runs in the 5th in a wild inning. Luque, who was struggling throughout the night, started the inning by giving up 3 singles to Larry Walker, Todd Helton, and Howard Johnson to load the bases. That was enough for Lima's braintrust who brought in Roberto Hernandez to keep the game at least close at this early stage. After retiring Roy Campanella on a liner to second, Hernandez grooved a fastball to Pop Lloyd who smacked a bases clearing double that reached the right centerfield wall. Hernandez then walked Eddie Collins and followed this up with up back to back singles to Game 4 hero Eric Davis and Barry Bonds. Despite Bonds getting thrown at at third on trying to stretch his single to a triple on the throw home, 2 runs scored and DC left the inning with an 8-2 lead.

The night got a little interesting after Dave Parkers pinch hit 3-run home run in 6th, but DC scored the next inning to keep the lead at 4 runs and that's where it ended. Lloyd gathered 3 hits and 4 at bats to lead the Chip offense, while reliever Willie Hernandez pitched 3+ scoreless innings in relief of Radbourn.

After a day off, the Series heads back to DC for Game 6.

Game 6 @ DC: DC Wins 9-1

On the brink of elimination, Lima turned to Andy Pettitte, who was making his first appearance in 12 days. Back from nursing an ankle injury, the 33-year old left hander could not have returned soon enough for the battered de Equipo rotation, or so Lima thought. Pettitte had absolutely nothing and gave up 8 hits and 6 runs in only 4 2/3 innings, dashing Lima's hopes for a game 7 and a true underdog World Series victory.

Pettitte's opponent Toad Ramsey was very good striking out 8 and giving up a lone run in 4th before turning the game over to the pen in the 7th. They shined as well, letting the league's best team coast to a 9-1 series clinching win.

There were several stars on offense. Ron Santo went 5-5 with 4 runs scored; Oscar Charleston (back from injury) and Bill Freehan each had 2 RBI while Howard Johnson knocked in 3.

Pettitte got into trouble immediately letting up a lead of double to Barry Bonds to start the game. The DC offense followed with 4 singles and 3 runs and never looked back. DC scored twice in the 5th on a Howard Johnson double and three more times in the 7th thanks to 4 singles and a walk.

Series MVP award goes to game Ramsey, who started game 2 as well. The kid (he's 21 years of age) picked up 2 key victories in the series, pitching 14 innings and getting dinged for just 8 hits and two runs, while striking out 14. His line: 14 IP, 8 H, 14 K, 1.29 ERA. We'll ignore the incredible 9 walks.

Congratulations Steve Chippendale for his wire to wire finish in his first ATB ownership!

PREVIEW

Fittingly, the best team in the Henry Chadwick League faces off against the best team in the Alexander Cartwright League for the ATB X World Series. Both squads easily won their divisions by a combined 27 games and neither were pushed to the brink in their respective League Championship Series, winning a combined 7 of 8 of the last playoff games.

The chart below reflects how each team stacked up against the competition in their leagues:

On paper at least, the DC Chips own a significant advantage that will become more self evident as our analysis continues. Relative to their leagues, one might argue their offenses are fairly similar, at least close enough that any advantage is marginal. However, Lima plays in bandbox, almost literally, and their park factors easily inflate their offensive production. Sportsman's Park increases home runs 114%, doubles 52%, and singles 10%. From this perspective, DC has a clear advantage in overall offense.

It is a similar situation when comparing team pitching. However, while it is true that the DC home park decreases offense slightly, especially home runs, this hardly makes up for the difference in overall run prevention. DC routinely had the best staff in the entire game this year, contrasted quite starkly against Lima who were ranked 16th overall in Runs Against.

The next few sections will look into these aspects in a bit more detail.

OFFENSE

Holding park factor aside for a moment we can see how Lima's lineup appears to match up favorably. In fact, the heart of the Lima lineup looks quite formidable. Both teams have similar AVG, OBP, SPC, and OPS scores with the Chips being favored in most of the counting stats. Another factor is the balance of the Chips lineup, with no regular with an OPS under .700 versus Lima's situation of two players fighting to get out of the .665 to .680 range.

Off the bench for Lima is outfielder Lance Berkman (.256 / .342 / .405), infielder Chuck Knoblauch (.234 / .327 / .285), and catcher Jorge Posada (.290 / .361 / .385). The Chips counter with much weaker alternatives. The best bench alternatives is outfielder is probably Eric Davis (.169 / .242 / .310); good infield defender Ron Santo (.222 / .310 / .328), and catcher Bill Freehan (.225 / .300 / .346).

When we again bring park factor into the analysis, it's clear the DC Chips have the better offense.

Pitching Staffs

Overall pitching quality and depth is a serious issue for Lima. Serious enough that middle reliever Jason Isringhausen started game 4 of the League Championship Series against Winterfell because the team has only three starters of any quality. On a positive note, the de Equipo bullpen is more than solid, especially when considering how difficult it is to pitch in Sportsman's park.

The Chips are again the clear winners however, as each member of the rotation and bullpen is superior to his counterpart on Lima. RSAA is a flawed statistic for sure, but the fact that DC has a 112 to 1 scoring advantage cannot be overlooked or justified through park factors. Another way to look at the situation is that on paper, the Chips 4th starter may be better than Lima's #1 starter.

AS good as the Chips starters are, the bullpen is historically incredible. All pitchers out of the pen have an RSAA of 6.5 or better, and four are in the double digit range. According to this measurement, they have 4 of the top 6 non-closing relievers in the game.

Fielding

More problems for Lima. Not only do the Chips have a better offense and better pitching staff, their overall team defense pales in comparison in all factors - team range, team error rate, and arm strength. It would make an interesting case study to see how this remarkable team defense impacts the DC pitching staff - is the staff really this good or does the team defense mask some flaws, and make them appear to be better then they really are. It's academic however, as either way it doesn't improve Lima's chances this Series.

Conclusion

The Series is the Chips' to lose, plain and simple. The numbers show that they are the team to beat of ATB X and just about everything has broken right for them this year. They are battling an injury to a starting pitcher (Pud Galvin) but their depth is so solid it likely will make no difference.

The key to any Lima victory lies with Babe Ruth. The only way Lima wins is if the Sultan of Swat returns to his early season form when he batted .395 / .513 / .892 over the first two months of the season. Additionally, owner Brad Peterson outwitted Winterfell's boss in the LCS and if his machinations continue to pan out, it gives Lima an edge that may make the difference if Ruth breaks out.

Commissioner Prediction: DC in 5.