ATB XI Playoffs - World Series

On paper, in almost every key measurement, the Bellevue Freakin' Franchise are to be considered heavy favorites to bring home the ATB XI World Championship. It's a return to the Championship series for Bellevue Owner Brad P, who lost to the DC Chips in 6 games last year. Prior to this campaign, Brad had played in 9 ATB seasons making a playoff appearance in one-third of them.

Across the diamond sits Joe T, a second year ATB owner, though extremely familiar with DMB in general from countless seasons and replays in other leagues. Both managers are extremely hands on submitting a combined 40 lineups since Week 1.

The parks will be a factor to consider for the series as well. In all but home run power, both favor batters moderately and we should expect hits to come in bunches. As for those home runs, righty batters such as Derek Lee, Albert Pujols, and Hank Aaron will find it difficult to connect with home run rates of 82 and 60. A key for Helena might be Stan Musial, the lefty outfielder who will have right field opened up to him while batting in Sportsman's park. At home in Comiskey he has been struggling with a HR park factor of just 60, but when on the road this series that number will jump to 105.

The chart below reflects how each team stacked up against the competition in their leagues:

As you can plainly see, in the 13 major statistical categories listed, Helena has the advantage in none of them, while Bellevue is the clear favorite in 10. The next few sections will look into these aspects in a bit more detail.

OFFENSE

As mentioned, Bellevue has an advantage in the top to bottom lineup but we can't overlook the significant fact the best to hitters in the series are the 3/4 combination of the Handbasket's. San Musial and Albert Pujols are the heart of the Helena offense and have the potential to do significant damage to any opposing pitching staff.

Countering these two is a well balanced attack where the only true weaknesses are in the 9th slot (which team doesn't have a weakness here) and in the 6-hole. Johnny Mize has power, but with a .238 AVG and .291 OBP can be pitched too in tight situations.

Regardless of the individual prowess of each batter, Keep in mind the following - Bellevue scored 135 more runs than Helena this season. They get on base more, hit for more power, and feature more speed.

Pitching Staffs

Again, we see a clear edge for the Freakin Franchise. Among the 4 starting pitcher match-ups, only one shows an advantage for Helena. The combination of Brandon Webb, Johnny Podres, Cliff Melton, and the up and coming Allan Anderson give Bellevue one of the best starting rotations in the entire game. This isn't to say Helena's staff is shabby - they're actually quite good when looking at a short series 4-man rotation.

The bullpen's are roughly equal, though Helena should be considered to have the better of the two. Closing games for them is a platoon of Joe Hoerner and Robb Nen, both of which have been great this season. Opposing them is Armando Benitez who saved 40, but also sports a 3.93 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.

Setup men and long relievers are a virtual wash - Bellevue has the edge in lefty setup men and 1st middle relievers, while Helena owns the edge among righty setup men and long relievers.

Fielding

Both teams have solid defenses, with the slight edge going to Bellevue as the series progresses and they get start shortstop Hughie Jennings back in game 4. Bellevue has not announced their plans at third base, and for our purposes lets assume they continue to play Derrek Lee out of position. Bellevue is better in outfield range and arm strength, while Helena has the advantage in infield range and error rate.

They key may come down to Johnny Bassler, the Handbasket's backstop. Bellevue stole 262 regular season bases, easily the best mark in all of ATB. Can Johnny Bassler, who has an above average but not truly elite arm, hold the Franchise speed in check? It can be done - Bellevue has below average regular season steal success rate of .63%

Conclusion

The key to series for Helena might be the running game. Bellevue runs all the time, and to a fault, regularly running themselves out of scoring opportunities. If held in check, and Pujols and Musial have a good series, Helena has a fighting chance.

Otherwise, Bellevue has a better offense, better rotation, and at least an equal bullpen. The gap in team quality widens with the return of the slick fielding and high on base percentage shortstop for Bellevue in Game 4.

Commissioner Prediction: Bellevue in 6.